Record-breaking turnout in this key demographic could sway the election



When it comes to early voting, rural voters are turning out in droves, while urban voters' participation is declining in key battleground states. Given that rural voters tend to lean Republican and urban voters lean Democratic, this trend could be particularly consequential going into the election.

Since 2020, there has been over a six-point increase in rural early voting across the seven battlegrounds, while urban early voting decreased by over seven points, according to data from TargetEarly. Suburban voters only increased by about one point from 2020 across the seven swing states.

With just two days to go until the election, this may turn the tide in former President Trump's favor.

There is a partisan split between rural and urban voters, which could shift the electoral outcome, and it has only widened over the last two decades.

Suburban voters have been split down the middle for the past two decades, with 50% identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning and 47% identifying as Democratic or Democrat-leaning, according to a Pew Research study from April.

Urban voters have a larger partisan gap, leaning heavily toward Democrats. In 1994, 58% of urban voters identified as Democratic or Democrat-leaning, while 39% identified as Republican or Republican-leaning, according to the study. The partisan gap widened slightly by 2023, with 60% of urban voters identifying as Democratic and 37% identifying as Republican.

The partisan gap among rural voters used to be extremely narrow, with 51% identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning and 45% identifying as Democratic or Democrat-leaning, according to the study. Since then, just 35% identify as Democrats, while 60% identify as Republicans.

While urban voters, who are mostly Democratic, are participating at a lower rate in battleground states compared to 2020, rural voters, who are mostly Republican, have a higher turnout rate. With just two days to go until the election, this may turn the tide in former President Trump's favor.

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NEW polling reveals the working class is abandoning Harris for Trump — here’s why



As Election Day draws dangerously nearer, everyone is keeping a close watch on the polling for both candidates. According to Blaze Media senior editor for politics Christopher Bedford, Trump is polling at record numbers among demographics that typically skew Democrat — like black and Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is losing working-class voters, as the VP’s efforts have been hyper-concentrated on securing the suburban women vote, which is why Harris has been focusing primarily on the issue of “unfettered access to [abortion].”

Jill Savage from “Blaze News Tonight” and Blaze News editor in chief Matthew Peterson join Bedford to discuss the new polling results.

“If Trump didn't have mean tweets, which he's always had ... would he get that much more percentage of, say, white women and therefore win?” Peterson asks Bedford.

“Donald Trump is not your typical Republican. A typical Republican who may not be alienating white women at the same level also wouldn't be polling at historic levels for black voters that we’ve not seen since Richard Nixon’s literal first run [in 1960]. ... You wouldn’t see Hispanic voters changing the same way,” says Bedford.

However, Democrats have also contributed to driving the black and Hispanic demographics toward the GOP.

“The Democrats becoming a racial party that put African Americans first and put illegal immigration on a pedestal — those two things were very alienating to a lot of Hispanic voters,” “working class voters,” as well as “black men,” Bedford explains.

“Their whole demographics-as-destiny plan kind of backfired,” he adds.

The fact that Trump can “walk into an Hispanic bar” or “walk into a black neighborhood” and feels “comfortable in his skin” has done more to secure these minorities' votes than the GOP’s “fancy outreach efforts,” Bedford tells Savage and Peterson.

However, there’s something the GOP needs to be very careful about if they want Trump’s success to continue.

To hear Bedford’s warning for Republicans, watch the clip above.

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Hordes of swing-state surburbanites switching voter registration to Republican



Pollsters and pundits alike have been predicting a red wave in November 2022 almost since President Joe Biden took office. Now voter registration records — particularly those in key swing states — have begun to reflect this change in voter sentiment.

According to a study conducted by the AP, registered voters have recently changed their party registration in favor of Republicans in massive numbers. Of the 1.7 million registration changes considered for the study, over 1 million of them went from Democrat to Republican.

Analysts noted that this phenomenon has occurred throughout the country, from Atlanta to L.A. However, the registration movement in the suburban areas of major swing states is particularly noteworthy, since it indicates that some of the suburban voters who soured on Republicans during the Trump administration have swung back toward the Republican Party.

According to the AP, "Republicans boosted their share of party changers in 168 of 235 suburban counties AP examined — 72 percent — over the last year, compared with the last years of the Trump era."

Suburban counties in states like Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa all show a dramatic move away from Democrats and toward Republicans.

Back in December 2020, FiveThirtyEight observed that Biden was able to carry Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election "by improving on [Hillary] Clinton’s margins in predominantly suburban and exurban counties around big cities like Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, where more white voters with a college degree backed the Democratic presidential ticket — a trend that was true across the country."

Now that trend seems to have reversed course, even in traditional Democrat strongholds like suburban Denver and L.A.

“Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves," RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP, and “American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come” as a result.

With Election Day just over four months away, the momentum seems to favor Republicans. High gas prices, the baby formula shortage, drag queen story hours, and now the Dobbs decision from the Supreme Court, which has overturned Roe v. Wade, are all important socio-economic issues that Republicans can hammer home on the campaign trail.

Just as protracted school closures and the hostile treatment of parents at local school board meetings ushered in astonishing Republican victories in 2021 in purple states like Virginia, opposition to drag queens in schools and late-term abortions could help secure Republican victories around the country in 2022.

To that end, the GOP has already begun registering voters at gas stations in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania to capture the anti-Biden/anti-Democrat mood and channel it toward stronger GOP turnout in November.

Though Biden won't face electoral opposition until 2024, Democrat control of the House and Senate remains vulnerable. If suburban voter frustration continues, Republicans may retake control of Congress in just a few short months.

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