One big, beautiful bill — one big, back-loaded disaster



Republicans have a bad habit of passing major legislation without thinking through the consequences. The “one big, beautiful bill” suffers from one big, ugly dose of shortsightedness. It’s an ambitious package loaded with short-term tax cuts and spending increases, followed by a cliff’s-edge drop into fiscal and political chaos just three years down the road.

That’s right. The expiration dates baked into the bill all but guarantee a showdown with Democrats during the 2028 election season, with Trump still in the White House, handing them enormous leverage and setting up Republicans for another round of fiscal self-sabotage.

Another fiscal cliff in the making

To keep the bill’s official price tag under control, drafters built in a series of sunset provisions. The goal: Limit the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate to just three years of deficits, even though they fully intend to extend those policies later. That gimmick allows Republicans to pretend the bill adds “only” $3 trillion to the national debt.

Republicans just built a bomb — and they are poised to hand over the detonator to their political enemies at the worst possible time.

But the policies don’t just disappear in 2028. If history is any guide — see the Bush and Trump tax cuts — most of the expiring provisions will be renewed. And when that time comes, Republicans will argue that these are now “current law” and therefore don’t count as new spending. It’s baseline budgeting sleight of hand, and everyone in Washington knows it.

Let’s look at what’s on the chopping block at the end of 2028:

  • $320 billion in extra defense and immigration spending
  • A larger standard deduction for all taxpayers
  • A $500-per-child bonus tax credit
  • A deduction for auto loan interest
  • $1,000 “Trump accounts” for newborns
  • A higher standard deduction for seniors
  • Exemptions from tax on overtime and tips
  • Immediate expensing for business structures

On top of that, several key business tax provisions — 100% bonus depreciation, enhanced interest deductions, and the R&D credit — will expire in 2029. That timing coincides with the possibility of a Democrat retaking the presidency, leaving Republicans with even less control over what happens next.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, extending the 2028-2029 provisions would add another $2 trillion to the national debt. That would push total costs above the original Trump tax cuts. And it would come just as the U.S. confronts mounting interest payments and an economy likely in no condition to absorb more debt.

A perfect storm in ’28

The timing couldn’t be worse. Democrats are already poised to take back the House in 2027. The GOP’s majority is razor-thin, and Democrats sit just a few seats away from regaining control. If recent special elections offer any clues, the midterms won’t be kind to Republicans.

That means Trump will likely face a Democrat-controlled House in 2028, as his administration scrambles to extend the bill’s most popular provisions: child tax credits, overtime and tip exemptions, baby accounts, business deductions, and elevated defense and homeland security spending — all of it set to disappear just as voters head to the polls.

Trump won’t want to campaign on tax hikes or cuts to defense and border security. He’ll push to renew the provisions — and Democrats will know it. They may agree with many of these policies, but they’ll still demand concessions, knowing Trump has no choice but to deal.

RELATED: I was against Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ — Stephen Miller changed my mind

Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Expect ransom demands. Democrats could insist on undoing the repeal of Green New Deal policies. They might push to roll back modest Medicaid reforms included in the bill. They could demand changes to immigration enforcement or extract new spending commitments, especially if the economy continues to falter. Nothing would be off the table.

In short, Republicans have given Democrats the upper hand in a high-stakes negotiation just as Trump is trying to shape his legacy and tee up a successor. They didn’t just walk into the trap — they built it.

Lessons not learned

Republicans keep making the same mistake. Rather than structurally reforming the federal government, they pass short-term tax cuts and temporary spending increases while pretending deficits don’t matter.

This bill could have tackled the cost of health care, the explosion of federal spending, or the burden of inflation. It could have included structural reforms to entitlements, energy, or higher education. Instead, the GOP opted to pass a tax cut bill that tries to game the budget window.

If they believe growth will eventually offset the deficit — fine. But in that case, why not go all in? Make the cuts permanent. Expand them. Flatten the code and eliminate more deductions. Build a case for supply-side reform rather than hiding behind fiscal gimmicks.

Instead, they did the opposite. They chose a politically popular mix of spending and tax breaks and timed it to explode during an election that will determine Trump’s legacy, hoping no one would notice.

The bottom line

The one big, beautiful bill doesn’t reduce spending. It doesn’t rein in the bureaucracy. It doesn’t fix the structural problems crushing the middle class. It temporarily cuts taxes while baking in a debt explosion and surrendering future negotiating power to Democrats.

If Republicans think deficits don’t matter, they should at least have the courage to admit it. If they think Trump’s policies will spark enough growth to pay for themselves, then make those policies permanent. But don’t pretend to care about fiscal restraint while quietly handing the next Congress a multitrillion-dollar mess.

Republicans just built a bomb — and they are poised to hand over the detonator to their political enemies at the worst possible time.

I was against Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ — Stephen Miller changed my mind



After the House narrowly passed President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” — in true Washington fashion, it’s already been reduced to an acronym: BBB — the usual suspects sounded the alarm. Libertarians and deficit hawks recoiled. Elon Musk, the former DOGE chief, called it a “disgusting abomination.” He warned it would pile another $2.4 trillion onto the national debt over the next decade. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) slammed it as hypocritical, saying Republicans can’t keep pushing tax cuts without real spending cuts to match.

I sympathized. I flinched at the trillion-dollar price tag too. My immediate thought: “This is what Democrats and GOP sellouts do — not fiscal conservatives.”

The BBB is the first major Republican bill in decades that doesn’t bend to Democratic narratives. It doesn’t apologize for putting American citizens first.

Then Stephen Miller showed up.

While critics accused the bill of being just another bloated omnibus, Miller pushed back. He took to X to argue that the BBB isn’t some lobbyist-driven monstrosity. It’s a focused, unapologetic conservative package: secure the border, overhaul welfare, and revive the economic growth unleashed by the 2017 tax cuts. For the first time in a long time, I decided to hear the argument out.

Border security for real this time

I didn’t need much convincing on border security. But Miller pointed out something the corporate left-wing media barely mentioned: The BBB fully funds the border wall — both physical infrastructure and new tech. Republicans have promised that since 2016. Nearly a decade later, they finally have a bill that delivers.

— (@)

This isn’t more messaging fluff. The bill puts $45 billion toward border security — the largest commitment in U.S. history. It increases Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention capacity by 800% over the previous fiscal year, funding facilities to detain more than 100,000 people per day. It also includes $8 billion to hire 10,000 new ICE officers and staff.

If the bill ended there, it would be a no-brainer. But I still had concerns — starting with the deficit.

Does it add $2.4 trillion to the deficit?

We can’t call ourselves fiscal conservatives while borrowing like Democrats. Miller knows that, and he didn’t dodge the question.

The bill, he argued, enacts the most sweeping welfare reform in U.S. history. It includes over $2 trillion in net spending cuts. Programs like Medicaid and food stamps would be tied to citizenship and work requirements — policies conservatives have supported for years but rarely fought for seriously in Congress.

And then there’s the tax side.

The BBB extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — one of the clearest drivers of economic growth during Trump’s first term. That’s what triggered the $2.4 trillion deficit estimate, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

But here’s the twist: The CBO’s figure isn’t based on new spending. It’s based on continuing tax relief. Miller’s argument is straightforward — there’s a world of difference between scoring a bill that way and actually running up the national credit card.

RELATED: Trump’s $9.3B rescission push faces a GOP gut check

Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images

Attributing the deficit to tax cuts is like blaming hydrogen peroxide for the wound it’s meant to treat. The real cause of the deficit isn’t lower taxes. It’s decades of spending on bloated welfare, bureaucratic waste, and corporate handouts that the DOGE identified — exactly the kind of garbage the BBB cuts.

Even ABC News, buried in the middle of a critical write-up, admitted that the bill would cut taxes by $3.7 trillion and reduce spending by $1.2 trillion. If that’s not a conservative win, what is?

Letting the 2017 tax cuts expire over CBO scoring fears would amount to a massive tax hike on the working and middle classes. Extending them strengthens the economy, boosts small businesses, and keeps the government from choking growth just to massage a deficit number.

Why not pass these reforms separately?

Border security — check. Welfare reform — check. Pro-growth tax cuts — check. So why cram it all into one bill? Why not pass each measure individually, on its own merits?

Miller addressed that too. In a perfect world, each item would pass as a clean bill. But in the real world, every one of these provisions would require 60 votes in the Senate — including Chuck Schumer’s. That’s not happening.

— (@)

The reconciliation process, however, only requires a simple majority. It’s the only legislative path available. For once, Republicans are using the rules the way Democrats do: to win.

I didn’t like it at first. It felt like a compromise. But now I see it as the only way to do what we’ve been saying we want to do for years.

Miller won me over

The BBB is the first major Republican bill in decades that doesn’t bend to Democratic narratives. It doesn’t water down core principles. It doesn’t apologize for putting American citizens first.

And unlike Louisiana Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson’s endless parade of “small ball” continuing resolutions, the BBB actually moves the ball down the field. It lays out a coherent conservative agenda — and the administration is determined to get it passed.

— (@)

I’m still a fiscal hawk. I still want smaller bills, much less spending, and a federal budget that doesn’t look like a summertime pig roast. But I also want results. And this might be the only chance we have to deliver the policy victories we’ve been promised for a generation.

Stephen Miller changed my mind. I hope other conservatives will give him a fair hearing too.

If Only Ukraine-Loving Senate Republicans Put Americans First For Once

While Senate Republicans rush to punish Putin, they dither on cutting taxes, shrinking government, and securing the border.

Trump pressures House Republican holdouts as reconciliation talks intensify



President Donald Trump made a much-needed appearance on Capitol Hill Tuesday morning as more and more House Republicans turn on the "big, beautiful bill."

Trump met with the House Republican conference alongside Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has been working around the clock to make sure reconciliation can pass. But with just two Republican votes to spare and multiple unresolved policy negotiations, the fate of the bill still remains in the balance.

'Anybody that didn't support it, as a Republican, I would consider a fool.'

RELATED: Fiscal hawks send warning as 'big, beautiful bill' clears high-stakes vote: 'We have to do more to deliver'

POTUS gaggles with reporters after meeting with House Rs on reconciliation.

Trump says “anybody that didn’t support it, as a Republican, I would consider to be a fool.”

Several House Rs remained a “no” after the meeting.@theblaze pic.twitter.com/SdV3K5x9mZ
— Rebeka Zeljko (@rebekazeljko) May 20, 2025

During the meeting, Trump made it clear that he was losing his patience with Republican defectors and even suggested they should be primaried. Trump told members not to let SALT negotiations get in the way of reconciliation, even calling out Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York during the meeting.

Lawler notably rejected Johnson's latest — and very generous — offer to increase the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, which is a $10,000 increase from the originally proposed cap.

Trump also called out fiscal hawks, specifically Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has maintained that he won't vote for the bill. However, Massie was not alone, with multiple House Republicans saying their views on the bill have not changed.

"Anybody that didn't support it, as a Republican, I would consider a fool," Trump told reporters after the meeting. "It's a great bill for America."

RELATED: Why the GOP is so frustrated trying to negotiate with the ‘SALT Caucus’

Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

At the same time, House Freedom Caucus members, like Republican Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Andy Harris of Maryland, still weren't persuaded by the president.

"We all are here to advance the agenda that the President ran on and that we all ran on," Roy said following the meeting. "I don't think the bill is exactly where it needs to be, yet. We need to extend the Trump tax cuts, but we also need to deliver on the spending restraint ... I think Congress can do a better job."

"The president, I don't think, convinced enough people that the bill is adequate, the way it is," Harris said. "President called for eliminating waste, fraud, abuse in Medicaid, and we have not eliminated waste, fraud, and abuse."

RELATED: Exclusive: Why Chip Roy can't support the 'big, beautiful bill': 'The swamp does what the swamp does'

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Johnson made progress with fiscal conservatives over the weekend when the bill passed through the Budget Committee Sunday night after initially failing a vote on Friday. Leading up to the vote, Johnson met with the Republican holdouts and floated a 2026 start date for Medicaid work requirements rather than the original 2029 implementation date. As a result, four Republicans, including Roy, voted "present" and allowed the bill to advance.

Trump addressed Medicaid during the meeting, telling members not to "f*** around" with the program with the exception of mitigating fraud, waste, and abuse.

"The only thing we're cutting is waste, fraud, and abuse," Trump said. "We're not changing Medicaid, and we're not changing Medicare, and we're not changing Social Security.”

Although Republican defectors seem to be digging their heels in, Trump remained optimistic about the future of his bill.

"I think we're in good shape," Trump told reporters. "This was a meeting of love. There is great unity in that room."

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

Exclusive: Why Chip Roy can't support the 'big, beautiful bill': 'The swamp does what the swamp does'



As reconciliation talks ramp up, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is doing what he can to reel in Republican defectors.

Johnson can afford to lose only three Republican votes and still get reconciliation out the door, which is shaping up to be a tall task as more and more Republicans take issue with different aspects of the "big, beautiful bill." Among them is Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, who outlined his grievances in an exclusive interview with Blaze News.

'I didn't come here to perpetuate a broken system. I understand that we have a thin majority, but we should deliver.'

"Reconciliation is all about balancing our current priorities to make sure that our spending and our tax policy results in something that could be remotely described as deficit-neutral or reducing the deficit," Roy told Blaze News. "So that's kind of the first, you know, measure of whether you're going to do something successfully or not."

Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

RELATED: Big, beautiful bill advances after 18-hour markup marathon while SALT talks go south

As Roy noted, codifying President Donald Trump's campaign promises is the unofficial measure of success on the Hill. While Trump himself has greenlit 151 executive orders as of this writing, only five bills from Congress have actually been signed into law.

"We need to deliver on the tax policy that President Trump ran on, and that would extend what he did in 2017," Roy added. "We need to deliver on spending restraint. We need to deliver on the priorities that the American people sent us here to deliver on."

"The problem is the swamp does what the swamp does," Roy told Blaze News.

Although reconciliation covers some of the MAGA mandate, Roy says it is still too flawed in its current state for him to throw his support behind the bill.

'It's a broken system, and this bill doesn't make it better,' Roy added. 'It frankly, arguably, makes it worse.'

"The problem is we've got a flawed bill. That's the bottom line," Roy added. "It has some good tax policy and some not-so-good tax policy. Some of it is not extended as it should be. We've got some good spending restraint and some bad spending policy."

Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

RELATED: SALT sellouts: GOP dumps red-state voters for New York Democrats

Roy used the proposed Medicaid reforms as a case study. One tool Republicans have used to trim down Medicaid costs and uproot fraud has been to enforce work requirements so that fewer people are able to take advantage of the system, allowing vulnerable and disabled people Medicaid was intended for to have access to the resources they need.

But as Roy pointed out, these so-called reforms have flaws of their own.

"They put the work requirements in, and they said, 'Oh, we've got work requirements,' but they don't take place until 2029, after the Trump presidency," Roy told Blaze News. "They have waivers to the work requirements even when they kick in in 2029. They do not address all the ridiculous federal funding of certain states at the expense of other states."

"It's a broken system, and this bill doesn't make it better," Roy added. "It frankly, arguably, makes it worse."

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

RELATED: House Republicans to hike up Harvard endowment tax in reconciliation

Roy said that unless the bill was significantly amended to rein in spending and actually reform Medicaid, he wouldn't be able to support it.

"It has to be amended," Roy told Blaze News. "I'm not going to be able to support it as it's currently drafted, and those amendments are going to need to be, you know, relatively significant."

"I didn't come here to perpetuate a broken system," Roy added. "I understand that we have a thin majority, but we should deliver."

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

Big, beautiful bill advances after 18-hour markup marathon while SALT talks go south



The House's big, beautiful bill passed through the Ways and Means Committee Wednesday morning along party lines after an 18-hour overnight markup. While this is a win for House Republicans, additional roadblocks appeared after negotiations with SALT Caucus members took a turn for the worse.

The SALT Caucus' primary advocacy focuses on increasing and even eliminating the federal deduction cap on state and local taxes. The deduction was capped at $10,000 by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. While codifying many of President Donald Trump's campaign promises, like no tax on tips and overtime, the GOP tax bill also raises the SALT cap to $30,000.

'They can sit and negotiate with themselves all they want, but there will be no changes unless I and the committee agree.'

Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of New York, the only SALT Caucus member who sits on Ways and Means, was also the only SALT Caucus member who supported the committee bill.

RELATED: House Republicans to hike up Harvard endowment tax in reconciliation

Photo by Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images

"These provisions will save individuals and families thousands of dollars annually, and with today's passage out of committee, we are a step closer to delivering relief," Malliotakis said.

However, other SALT Caucus members continue to dig their heels in as the tension ramps up behind closed doors.

During a late-night meeting with leadership and SALT Caucus members, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attempted to negotiate a deal with Republicans in the SALT Caucus, all of whom represent blue states. The negotiations went south after the members booted Malliotakis from the meeting even though she is the only member with direct influence on tax policy.

“As the only SALT Caucus member on Ways and Means, all I know is they can sit and negotiate with themselves all they want, but there will be no changes unless I and the committee agree," Malliotakis said.

RELATED: Exclusive: House Republicans debunk Medicaid misconceptions as reconciliation talks resume

Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Johnson, who initially went into the meeting hoping to strike a deal that night, later said he expects negotiations to continue through the weekend.

"This bill, as written, with a $30,000 cap for those making under $400,000, is just woefully inadequate," Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York said Wednesday of the bill. "So no, this does not have my support, it will not have my support, and if this bill comes to the floor for a vote, I will vote no."

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

White House official addresses criticism of Trump's ‘big, beautiful bill’



President Donald Trump has promised Americans he’ll be teaming up with congressional Republicans to pass a “big, beautiful bill” that’s chock full of campaign promises.

Of those campaign promises, “no tax on tips,” “no tax on overtime,” and major spending cuts stand out. However, the bill’s progress is dragging on — and the country is beginning to wonder what’s really going on.

Russell Vought, Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, has some answers.

“I want to talk to you about the Republicans, because I believe they’re kind of a waste of space. They are not doing the things that I think the president promised, and that is, cut the budget and cut regulation in dramatic ways,” Glenn Beck tells Vought on “The Glenn Beck Program.”


“We’re working through it right now. The House, they’re trying to meet their instructions. They basically passed a budget that would have $1.5 trillion in savings and about $4.5 trillion in tax relief, and they are working through to get a bill that can pass,” Vought explains.

“So when are we expecting this to be voted on and possibly go through?” Glenn asks.

“My hope is next week that they pass it out of committee, the two big committees of ways and means and energy and commerce, and then go to budget and set up a vote thereafter on the house floor. That’s our hope, that’s what we’re working towards,” Vought says.

“We’re going to move as much as we can within the parameters of the law and the Constitution, we’re going to move as fast and aggressively as possible to change the reality on the ground with reductions in force, with reorganizations, with doing programmatic review of spending that doesn’t have to go out through the use of recisions,” he continues.

“There’s a whole set of tools in our box that we’re going to use aggressively to get Congress moving in our direction, because we cannot be in a normal situation as an administration where we just kind of send bills up and wait on them,” he adds.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

Trump sends mixed signals on possible tax hike



President Donald Trump allegedly urged House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) during a phone call Wednesday to raise the top tax rate, albeit at a much higher income level, and close the carried interest loophole amid Republican lawmakers' efforts to finalize their Trump agenda bill.

The president indicated a change of mind Friday morning, however, suggesting on Truth Social that "Republicans should probably not do it."

Last month, Trump and Johnson shot down the idea of a tax hike on the wealthiest Americans.

The president said in his April 22 interview with Time magazine, "I certainly don't mind having a tax increase."

'Our party is the group that stands against that traditionally.'

"I actually love the concept," continued Trump, "but I don't want it to be used against me politically, because I've seen people lose elections for less, especially with the fake news."

The following day, Trump came out against the idea more forcefully, telling reporters in the Oval Office that the idea of a tax hike was "very disruptive," as it might prompt wealthy individuals to flee the country, reported Politico.

"You know, the old days, they left states. They go from one state to the other. Now with transportation so quick and so easy, they leave countries. You lose a lot of money if you do that," said Trump.

Johnson similarly came out swinging against a tax hike on April 23, telling "The Will Cain Show" last month, "We have been working against that idea. I'm not in favor of raising the tax rates because our party is the group that stands against that traditionally."

A number of provisions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire in December. Unless lawmakers extend the cuts, tax brackets will revert back to pre-TCJA levels. Accordingly the top individual, estate, and income tax bracket would return to 39.6% from the current rate of 37%.

One unnamed Republican source said to be familiar with Trump's Wednesday call with Johnson told NBC News that the president was considering allowing the rate to revert to 39.6% "to protect Medicaid and help pay for middle- and working-class tax cuts."

Multiple sources suggested to The Hill that while the White House advocated for allowing the top marginal income tax rate cut to expire, the administration wanted to see the 2017 cuts extended for Americans in the lower tax brackets. While the top income bracket starts this year at $626,350 per individual, the New York Times indicated the proposed restoration of the previous top rate would apply to individuals earning over $2.5 million annually.

The Hill noted that a spokesman for the House Ways and Means Committee declined to comment on any policy specifics under consideration, and the White House did not return the outlet's request for comment.

'I'm OK if they do!'

When asked about the proposed tax income increase on the upper brackets, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, told "The Hugh Hewitt Show" Thursday that he was "not excited about the proposal but I have to say there are a number of people in both the House and the Senate who are."

Crapo added, "If the president weighs in in favor of it, then that's going to be a big factor that we have to take into consideration."

Trump noted in a social media post on Friday, "The problem with even a 'TINY' tax increase for the RICH, which I and all others would graciously accept in order to help the lower and middle income workers, is that the Radical Left Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, 'Read my lips,' the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the Election."

"NO, Ross Perot cost him the Election!" continued Trump. "In any event, Republicans should probably not do it, but I'm OK if they do!"

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

Tariffs Won’t Solve Washington’s Biggest Problem: Overspending

The ructions in financial markets over the past few weeks and Washington’s dependence on foreign entities to keep funding our (over) spending illustrate why lawmakers need to do something to get our fiscal house in order.
Trump’s Tariff Trap: Will Tax Cuts Save the Economy? | Ep 1050
play icon

Trump’s Tariff Trap: Will Tax Cuts Save the Economy? | Ep 1050