Trump’s agenda faces a midterm kill switch in 2026



Ten months ahead of November’s midterms, political and economic crosscurrents are colliding. Which of these conflicting trends prevail will greatly shape the next two years. And possibly even longer.

Midterm elections are always important. Besides gauging the country’s political mood, they have proven integral to maintaining America’s political equilibrium.

For good or ill, incumbent presidents and their party own the economy. The question is: Which economy will Republicans own?

They are the “ebb” to the “flow” of America’s political tide. Historically, every four years a large tide of voters go to the polls and elect a president. Then every two years, the large voter flow ebbs back, and the president’s party suffers accordingly.

This midterm is particularly important to Trump because he has proven susceptible to being baited by his opponents. After 2018, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) returned to the House speakership and unrelentingly harassed Trump over the last two years of his first term. These distractions and obstructions­ — especially during COVID — were undoubtedly a factor in Trump’s narrow 2020 Electoral College defeat.

Today’s political crosscurrents are pronounced. We know the president’s party historically loses seats. The last two two-term presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, suffered congressional losses averaging 22 House seats and 7.5 Senate seats.

Such losses would hand Democrats control of Congress, giving them a House majority larger than Republicans’ narrow edge and a Senate majority bigger than the GOP’s current six-seat margin. Such outcomes would end Trump’s legislative agenda, and Democrats could set their own. To understand the potential impact, play back the recent funding impasse when Democrats shut the government down for the longest period ever — despite lacking control of either chamber.

While Trump would be able to veto Democratic legislation and Republican numbers would be ample to uphold his vetoes, Democrats would have a formal hand in shaping the political agenda. This could greatly help their 2028 presidential prospects.

RELATED: Republicans are letting Democrats lie about affordability

Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Current politics are blunting the historical midterm flow, however. Trump is divisive, with just a 43.4% favorable rating; however, his job approval rating of 43.1% is higher than Obama’s (42.4%) at the same point in his second term. Further, Democrats are in abysmal shape with just a 32.5% favorability rating.

The current 2026 political map is also favorable to Republicans. While they have more seats (22 to 13) to protect in the Senate, the toss-up seats are evenly split: Republicans with Maine and North Carolina; Democrats with Georgia and Michigan. Mid-decade House redistricting efforts are also likely to favor Republicans somewhat; if the Supreme Court should allow race to be disregarded in drawing House districts when it rules on the Louisiana case currently before it, then even more redistricting could occur and amount to an even greater Republican advantage.

Today’s economic crosscurrents are equally pronounced. For good or ill, incumbent presidents and their party own the economy. The question is: Which economy will Republicans own?

At the micro level, the growing issue is “affordability.” Nationally, this is an overhang of inflation that surged during Biden’s administration and peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 — a 40-year high.

Locally, affordability played well in New York City (which has been plagued by Democratic policies of rent control and excessive taxation, regulation, and litigation) in 2025’s mayoral race. It also played well in Virginia, where it linked powerfully into the record-long government shutdown. Democrats are therefore seizing on the issue with some success — particularly in the establishment media — and are trying to nationalize it.

At the macro level, the economy is a different story. Despite “expert” predictions that Trump’s tariffs, green agenda rollback, attack on illegal immigration, and reduction in government would combine to wreck the economy, the reverse has occurred. In Trump’s first two full quarters in office, GDP is averaging over 4% growth: up 3.8% in the second quarter and 4.3% in the third. Inflation has also been moderate — 2.7% in November — certainly not the spike experts predicted and a far cry from the previous four years.

RELATED: Conservatives face a choice in ’26: realignment or extinction

MediaProduction via iStock/Getty Images

So politically, depending on your perspective, Republicans look to outperform historically. Their Senate majority looks safe for now, with the chance that Republicans could even gain a seat or two. By contrast, Republicans’ House majority looks vulnerable; this could be offset slightly by current mid-decade redistricting efforts. Yet even just half the average loss of the last two administrations in their second midterms would mean an 11-seat swing and a 226-209 Democratic majority.

Economically, the question is whether the micro or the macro prevails. Can the micro become a national mood outside Democratic areas, or will the macro of strong GDP growth and moderate inflation have time to prevail? Expect political midterm fortunes to respond accordingly.

What is certain is that the midterms will shape the last two years of Trump’s second term. And possibly determine who will run and who will win the presidency in 2028.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

Elected Dem Busted For Breaking Into Car

'Our office will not comment further on the details'

Ex-teacher accused of possessing 500+ child porn images — second arrest deepens case



A former teacher in Texas has been accused of inappropriate sexual contact with a child and possession of child pornography. Just days after the substitute teacher’s arrest, her alleged boyfriend was also arrested for child sex crimes.

On Dec. 19, Madison Paige Jones was reportedly charged with one count of aggravated sexual assault of a child, two counts of indecency with a child sexual contact, and one count of possession of child pornography.

Jones is accused of having more than 500 visual depictions of child pornography in her possession.

According to Ellis County Sheriff's Office jail records, Jones is being held on a $90,000 bond.

The Midlothian Police Department said in a statement that officers were “dispatched to investigate a report of a potential sexual assault involving a child” on Dec. 17.

Law enforcement reportedly zeroed in on the former 30-year-old substitute teacher and arrested her.

KDFW-TV reported that the Midlothian Independent School District said Jones worked as a substitute teacher four times in the past year at Heritage High School and Baxter Elementary School.

According to the district, Jones substituted for one day at Heritage High School on Nov. 19 and for three days at Baxter Elementary on Oct. 28, Oct. 29, and Nov. 3. The New York Post separately reported the same dates, citing the district.

The San Antonio Express-News reported that Jones is accused of possessing more than 500 visual depictions of child pornography.

The school district said there is no indication that the charges are connected to Jones’ work as a substitute teacher and that preliminary information shows none of the alleged conduct occurred on a Midlothian ISD campus or during a school-related activity.

RELATED: Ex-teacher who dodged conviction for allegedly asking teen lover to kill husband learns fate for sexually assaulting student

CBS News reported that the Midlothian Independent School District said in a statement that its process for monitoring employee criminal history “functioned as intended” and that the district was notified quickly by the Texas Department of Public Safety.

The district said the substitute teacher is no longer employed and that it followed required reporting procedures with the Texas Education Agency.

Police said detectives with the Criminal Investigation Division continued the investigation and identified a second suspect, Zackery Dondlinger, 37, of Happy, Texas.

Authorities arrested Dondlinger on Dec. 23 in Loving County, Texas, according to police.

The sheriff’s office said Dondlinger was charged with sexual performance by a child and is being held at the Winkler County Detention Center awaiting arraignment.

Citing the Midlothian Police Department, CBS News reported that Jones and Dondlinger were in a dating relationship.

Law enforcement agencies involved in the investigation include the Midlothian Police Department, the Ellis County Children’s Advocacy Center, the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Texas Office of the Attorney General’s Fugitive Apprehension Unit, and the Loving County Sheriff’s Office. Authorities said the investigation is ongoing.

Anyone with information related to this case is urged to contact Midlothian Police Detective Dawson Frazer at 469-672-0056.

The Loving County Sheriff's Office, the Ellis County Children’s Advocacy Center, and the Texas Office of the Attorney General's Fugitive Apprehension Unit did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Blaze News.

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ICE's Christmas crackdown: Gang members, pedophiles, and an attempted murderer are now off the streets



The weekend leading into Christmas, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents arrested more violent criminal illegal aliens, according to a press release exclusively obtained by Blaze News.

The Department of Homeland Security highlighted 15 illegal aliens with criminal histories who were recently captured across the country by federal immigration officials.

'All year long, our law enforcement officers worked around-the-clock, including weekends and holidays, to arrest the worst of the worst.'

“U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) continues to deliver on its promise this Christmas season to make America safe again and remove the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens from our communities,” the press release read.

“While many Americans began wrapping presents and preparing for the joyous holy holiday, ICE was hard at work arresting the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens convicted of horrific crimes including lewd and lascivious acts with [a] child, child neglect, obscene communication, and attempted murder," it added.

First on the DHS worst of the worst list is Juan Jesus Acosta-Gutierrez, a Mexican national and Surenos-13 gang member. He was previously convicted for lewd and lascivious acts with a child under 14 by force or fear in San Bernardino, California.

RELATED: Illegal alien truck driver walks out of jail after allegedly killing American — and sanctuary policies appear to be to blame

Juan Jesus Acosta-Gutierrez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Federal agents captured Udit Mehra, an Indian national who has a criminal history in Seminole, Florida, for cruelty toward children and obscene communication.

Udit Mehra. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

That Xiong, from Laos, was also picked up by ICE agents. He was previously convicted of attempted murder and discharging a firearm at an occupied vehicle in Sacramento, California.

That Xiong. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Juan Carlos Marrufo-Flores, an illegal alien from Mexico, was convicted of aggravated sexual assault of a child in Atascosa County, Texas.

Juan Carlos Marrufo-Flores. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE arrested criminal illegal alien David Cerna-Calderon of Mexico. He has a rap sheet in Bexar County, Texas, for assault causing bodily injury to a family member.

David Cerna-Calderon. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Yesenia Martinez-Gonzalez, a Mexican national, was detained by federal immigration officials. She was previously convicted in Texas for child neglect, resisting arrest, and driving while intoxicated.

Yesenia Martinez-Gonzalez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Jose Dante Ortiz-Alvalardo of Mexico has a criminal history in Cabarrus County, North Carolina, for a second-degree forced sexual offense.

Jose Dante Ortiz-Alvalardo. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE agents also nabbed Edwin Ismael-Hernandez, a Mexican national. He was previously convicted in Los Angeles, California, for several crimes. His rap sheet includes evading a peace officer/disregarding safety, hit-and-run, willful harm of a peace officer's horse or dog, and vehicle theft.

Edwin Ismael-Hernandez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

David Abraham Hernandez-Velez of Mexico was convicted of assault of a public servant in Brazoria County, Texas.

David Abraham Hernandez-Velez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Federal immigration agents arrested Jerson Poveda-Delgado, a Colombian national with a criminal history in Indianapolis, Indiana, that includes battery against a public safety official.

Jerson Poveda-Delgado. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Daniel Emony, from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, was convicted in Alexandria, Virginia, of making false statements, aggravated identity theft, and perjury.

Daniel Emony. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE also nabbed Carlos Martinez-Melendez, a Mexican national who was convicted of robbery in Austin, Texas.

Carlos Martinez-Melendez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Federal agents arrested Justo Perez-Escobar, a Mexican national with a conviction in Gloucester Township, New Jersey, for unlawful possession of a handgun.

Justo Perez-Escobar. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Isaias Alvarado-Arellano of Mexico was previously convicted for conspiracy to distribute or possess with intent to distribute methamphetamine in Oregon.

Isaias Alvarado-Arellano. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

The DHS press release also highlighted the arrest of Rudy Gonzalez, a Cuban national who was convicted of racketeering/conspiracy in Miami, Florida.

RELATED: 'Blood on their hands': Trump admin blames 'sanctuary' Dems after illegal alien with detainer request allegedly murders American

Rudy Gonzalez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

“While many Americans began celebrating Christmas with their families and loved ones this weekend, ICE arrested gang members, child pedophiles, abusers, and an attempted murderer. All year long, our law enforcement officers worked around-the-clock, including weekends and holidays, to arrest the worst of the worst. We are thankful for our law enforcement who delivered the best Christmas gift for American families this holiday season: safer communities,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said.

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'Slow-walking' safety? Trump DOT threatens to yank $24M over Colorado's illegal CDL mess.



The Department of Transportation warned Colorado that the state could lose $24 million in federal highway funding if it continues to drag its feet on addressing illegally issued commercial driver's licenses, according to a press release exclusively obtained by Blaze News.

'Colorado has two options: Revoke the licenses immediately, or I will pull federal funding.'

In September, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy shared the results of a Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration audit, which found "systemic noncompliance" among state driver licensing agencies in several states, including Colorado.

The audit revealed that 22% of Colorado's non-domiciled CDLs were issued illegally. Most of those licenses were reportedly issued to Mexican nationals. Drivers who are citizens of Mexico or Canada are ineligible to obtain non-domiciled CDLs and must instead acquire licenses from their home countries.

Some of the CDLs issued to immigrants by Colorado reportedly had expiration dates that exceeded the drivers' lawful presence in the U.S.

The DOT demanded that the state immediately pull the illegal licenses to come into compliance with federal laws.

A Monday press release from the department claimed that Colorado had "admitted that these violations were not accidental, but the result of a 2016 statewide policy decision to disregard federal law and give trucking licenses to ineligible Mexican citizens."

Blaze News reached out to the Colorado Department of Transportation, the Colorado Division of Motor Vehicles, and the governor’s office for comment. The Colorado DOT directed Blaze News to contact the state’s Department of Revenue, which oversees the Division of Motor Vehicles.

RELATED: Exclusive: DOT withholds $40M from blue state for flouting English requirements for truckers

Sean Duffy. Photographer: Ryan Collerd/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The DOT asserted that the state has been "slow-walking a purge of illegally issued truck licenses," cautioning that Colorado could lose $24 million in federal highway funds. The DOT also warned that it could decertify Colorado's CDL program.

According to the department, Colorado has not produced a complete audit or accounting of the illegal licenses.

"This continued delay signals a lack of urgency that puts public safety at risk," the press release read.

RELATED: Trump’s DOT claims 53% of New York’s non-domiciled CDLs were issued illegally

Photo by GEORGE FREY/AFP via Getty Images

"Colorado doesn't get to pick and choose what federal rules it follows — especially when the driving public is at risk," Secretary Duffy stated. "It's been nearly two months since Colorado admitted that they knowingly broke the law and gave Mexican nationals trucking licenses. Colorado has two options: Revoke the licenses immediately, or I will pull federal funding. Every day that goes by is another day unqualified, unvetted foreign truckers are jeopardizing the safety of you and your family."

Colorado received notice of its noncompliance in September, the same time the DOT also issued a similar notice to Texas. On September 29, the Texas Department of Public Safety announced that it had complied with the DOT's request and immediately suspended the issuance of certain CDLs.

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Why the 'Christian' Democrat is more dangerous than the loud one



The Democratic Party has been wandering the wilderness for years, somehow discovering new ways to alienate large portions of the country. And it still isn't finished.

Rock bottom, it turns out, has a basement — and Texas has the keys.

Earlier this month, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), a congresswoman who treats every disagreement like a full-contact sport, announced her Senate bid. Waiting for her in March is state Rep. James Talarico (D), a former teacher and pastor-in-training with a very different style.

Neither is good news. But from a Christian perspective, one is far worse.

Crockett is impossible to miss. She’s volume without thought, performance without a functioning pause button. Trump derangement syndrome has long since replaced reason, and nuance never survived the encounter. She seems to measure success by how many people she can irritate before lunch. Her politics are blunt, her tone brittle, her intellectual range roughly comparable to a Roomba. You always know where she stands because she’s standing on the table, yelling.

Talarico, by contrast, operates on an entirely different frequency. He lowers his voice, quotes scripture, and speaks with the gentle cadence of a youth pastor wrapping up a weekend retreat just before the acoustic guitar comes out. He talks about compassion, dignity, and the moral duty to protect the vulnerable. He wants to heal divides, soothe tensions, and “bring people together.”

If Crockett feels like a bar fight, Talarico feels like "Kumbaya" by candlelight with everyone instructed to hold hands.

And that is precisely the problem.

Crockett’s politics are abrasive but obvious. She makes no effort to hide what she believes or where she wants to take the country. There is something almost refreshing about her lack of disguise. You may not like the message, but it’s unmistakable. She offends openly and moves on.

But Talarico offends in a very different manner. He has mastered the art of wrapping progressive politics in pastoral language. What he offers is standard Democratic doctrine: sexual ideology backed by law, borders treated as optional, and a growing state taking over matters once settled by family, church, and conscience.

RELATED: 'Progressive Christian' turns Bible into a Planned Parenthood parable — but truth fires back

Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Talarico insists that faith and today’s Democratic Party can walk hand in hand. Perhaps this was plausible once, back when Democrats still shared a basic moral grammar with the rest of the country. In the 1990s, disagreement existed, but reality was still shared. Marriage meant something fixed. Biological sex wasn’t up for debate. Free speech had limits, but truth still mattered. You could argue policy without arguing over whether biology or basic reality still mattered.

That world is gone.

The modern Democratic project is built on ideas fundamentally at odds with Christian teaching: the self treated as sovereign, identity treated as sacred, desire elevated to authority, and socialism presented as the only workable future.

Sin is renamed "harm." Redemption is replaced with affirmation. Judgment is reserved only for those who dissent. Christianity, meanwhile, insists on restraint, repentance, and allegiance to something beyond the individual.

Talarico tries to solve this puzzle by watering down Christianity until it feels more like a mood than a creed. He does this because he has no other choice. In today’s Democratic Party, a Christian who speaks plainly about restraint and repentance simply cannot survive. He is summoned, sidelined, and eventually expelled. To remain welcome, faith must be dumbed down and rendered harmless.

So Talarico treats Christianity like a buffet. He keeps the language of love and mercy, the parts that flatter modern sensibilities, and quietly discards the parts that demand obedience, self-denial, or radical honesty.

This is not faith guiding politics but politics reshaping faith.

And that is where the charge sticks. This is not a good-faith disagreement or a sincere wrestling with belief but a distortion carried out for political survival. If Talarico spoke the full truth of Christianity as it has been taught for centuries, he would be politically homeless by morning. Rather than risk that, he trims the gospel until it fits the party line.

This is where the real danger lies. He speaks like a shepherd but votes like an activist, borrowing Christianity’s authority to push policies that weaken what faith seeks to strengthen — specifically the nuclear family and ordered community.

Crockett does her damage loudly, like a bull in a china shop. Talarico, on the other hand, is more woodworm than wrecking ball, smiling as he eats through the beams.

There’s something faintly comic about watching Democrats embrace Talarico. This is a party that spent decades treating Christianity like a vestigial organ, now swooning over a Sunday-school version of Pete Buttigieg.

But there’s nothing funny about what the Texan stands for.

Talarico offers a faith that never says "no," never draws lines, and never makes anyone uncomfortable except those stubborn enough to insist that limits must be imposed. Love is endlessly elastic. Compassion is permanently undefined. Everything bends; nothing breaks — except, eventually, the foundation.

Crockett, for all her theatrics, doesn’t pretend to share a Christian worldview. Talarico does. He doesn’t attack Christian beliefs outright. Instead he sands them down, slowly, patiently, until they no longer support much of anything.

For Texans, come March, both options are bad. This isn’t a choice so much as a coordinated assault: one, a knee to the groin, the other, a roundhouse to the ribs. Crockett does her damage loudly, like a bull in a china shop. Talarico, on the other hand, is more woodworm than wrecking ball, smiling as he eats through the beams.

Neither deserves trust. But only one dresses his agenda in sacred language.

Texas Democrats may think they are choosing between bedlam and bland reassurance. Christians should recognize the choice for what it is: between open hostility and sneaky subversion, between a politics that attacks faith from the outside and one that reshapes it from within.

Both are bad. But only one pretends to be good. And that, from a Christian point of view, makes all the difference.

Texas crook with 37 prior arrests gets released from jail, cuts off ankle monitor, then steals over $200K in jewelry: Cops



A Texas male with 37 prior arrests was released from jail, cut off his ankle monitor, then went on a crime spree, stealing over $200,000 in jewelry, KSAT-TV reported, citing the San Antonio Police Department and new documents.

Michael Allen Loving, 38, was arrested again Tuesday after being accused in connection with a string of recent robberies and thefts, namely from pawn shops and mall jewelry stores, the station said.

“I would say that it’s brazen that he just walks in, in the middle of the day,” said Camelia Juarez, a SAPD public information officer, according to KSAT. “He will just smash the glass, break it and take off with [the jewelry]."

More from the station:

Arrest affidavits related to Loving’s most recent arrests detail how he used that “smash and grab” technique at JCPenney at North Star Mall in October and at an EZ Pawn shop on West Woodlawn Avenue earlier this month.

The affidavits said that he stole more than $37,000 worth of gold chains from JCPenney and another $45,000-plus in jewelry from the EZ Pawn shop.

In both cases, Loving walked in and specifically asked employees to show him what he referred to as “cubans,” some of the most expensive jewelry in the display cases, the affidavit said.

Loving smashed the glass cases in both businesses, grabbed the jewelry, and ran off, KSAT said, citing the arrest affidavits.

Loving also threatened EZ Pawn shop workers with a gun, police told the station.

“After he threatened those two employees at the EZ Pawn, he went to dozens of other jewelry stores,” Juarez added to KSAT.

Juarez said Loving went on to steal more than $150,000 in jewelry from another business, the station said.

RELATED: Male reportedly shatters glass front door of jewelry store in middle of night. His problem? Armed store owner is inside.

Prior to his crime spree, Loving was arrested in connection with a smash-and-grab theft at an H-E-B on South Zarzamora Street, KSAT said, adding that police said he hit someone with his car as he fled. Officers later found the vehicle abandoned and found Loving — who had removed all of his clothing, the station said.

He was soon released from the Bexar County jail with an ankle monitor — then just days later, he cut off the ankle monitor and went on his crime spree, police told KSAT.

The Bexar County Sheriff's Office told Blaze News on Wednesday morning that Loving is behind bars.

Juarez said investigators believe Loving has targeted other business owners who have not yet reported crimes, the station said, adding that other potential victims should call SAPD’s Property Crimes Division at 210-207-8326.

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Exclusive: GOP Senate candidate Wesley Hunt pushes bill barring education benefits for illegal aliens



Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas is moving legislation on Capitol Hill to ensure taxpayers are actually prioritized over illegal aliens.

Hunt, who is running for U.S. Senate in Texas, introduced the American Dream Protection Act on Thursday to disincentivize states and educational institutions from providing educational benefits to illegal aliens. Hunt's legislation would require federal financial assistance to be withheld if states are found to provide taxpayer-funded education to illegal aliens.

'Too many American resources have been used to benefit illegals.'

“For years, the left and a select few Republican senators have pushed for mass amnesty and benefits for illegal aliens," Hunt told Blaze News. "In 2003, the Dream Act, which was voted favorably out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, created an incentive to provide illegals with in-state tuition rates intended only for legal residents."

"The American Dream Protection Act of 2025 will eliminate federal and state funding to universities that continue to support illegals."

RELATED: Ilhan Omar accuses ICE of 'racially profiling' her son during traffic stop

Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images

Educational institutions across the country offer in-state tuition and other higher education benefits to illegal aliens, leaving American taxpayers to foot the bill. To counteract these inequities, Hunt's bill withholds federal funds for schools that charge illegal immigrants lower tuition as well as states that provide them financial aid.

"Too many American resources have been used to benefit illegals while American citizens suffer," Hunt told Blaze News.

RELATED: Ocasio-Cortez claims ICE is targeting 6-year-olds in her district during crazed speech on immigration

Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Hunt is currently running in the Texas Senate primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The Republican primary winner will face off with one of two Democratic candidates, Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico.

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Six Primaries That May Determine The Future Of The GOP After Trump

Trump loyalists and establishment candidates battle it out