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Republicans presented with Senate pickup opportunity as Democrat announces retirement
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire announced Wednesday that she would not seek re-election in 2026, giving Republicans another opportunity to grow their Senate majority.
Shaheen has served in the Senate since 2009, flipping the previously red seat blue. Shaheen had also previously served as governor and in the state Senate.
'New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing common-sense Republicans—and will do so again in 2026!'
"Today, after careful consideration, I'm announcing that I have made the difficult decision not to seek re-election to the Senate in 2026," Shaheen said in a statement Wednesday. "There are urgent challenges ahead, both here at home and around the world. And while I'm not seeking re-election — believe me — I am not retiring."
Although both Senate seats have been held by Democrats for the last few elections, New Hampshire has elected Republican governors since 2016, and Republicans have held on to a majority in the state Senate. Given the strong Republican voting presence in the state, the GOP has the opportunity to flip another key Senate seat.
"Another one!" Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina said in a statement Wednesday. "Shaheen's retirement is welcome news for Granite Staters eager for new leadership. New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing common-sense Republicans—and will do so again in 2026!"
Republicans flipped four Democrat-held Senate seats in 2024, electing Republican Sens. Tim Sheehy of Montana, Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno of Ohio, and Jim Justice of West Virginia. This leaves Republicans with a comfortable 53-seat majority to work with.
There has also been some speculation about a potential senatorial run by Republican former Gov. Chris Sununu. Although Sununu has been a past critic of President Donald Trump, he has since warmed up to the party leader and even endorsed him in 2024.
“I have not ruled it out completely, but folks in Washington have asked me to think about it and to consider it, and that is just kind of where I am,” Sununu told the New Hampshire Journal on Tuesday.
“I like getting stuff done,” Sununu said. “I don’t think they could handle me down there. I’d be like a lion in a cage.”
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Sentinel proved to be a difference maker in electing Trump and helping Republicans decisively take back the Senate.Veteran Tim Sheehy Ousts Three-Term Democrat Sen. Jon Tester In Montana
Veteran Tim Sheehy, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, defeated Montana's long-time Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.Republicans flip 3rd US Senate seat, this time in Montana
Republican candidate Tim Sheehy won the election for Montana's U.S. Senate seat early Wednesday, defeating three-term Democratic incumbent Jon Tester.
Sheehy secured 53% of the vote while Tester earned only 45.2% of the vote, according to Politico.
Tester has served in the Senate for three terms since 2006, winning each election by slim margins. While Tester is a Democrat, Montana is known to be a ruby-red state that Trump-endorsed Sheehy had long been projected to win.
"THANK YOU, MONTANA!!" Sheehy said in a post on X. "We The People made our voices heard, we completed our mission, and now we will secure our children’s future and save America together!!"
Montana was one of the Senate races thought to guarantee Republicans an electoral edge to regain control of the Senate. So far, Republicans have flipped West Virginia and Ohio, securing the GOP's Senate majority.
As Election Day approached, Tester and other vulnerable Democratic senators like Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania made an effort to moderate their positions and distance themselves from the Democratic Party.
Tester's campaign emphasized points of bipartisanship and even aired an ad called "Republicans for Tester" that featured legislative accomplishments that former President Donald Trump signed off on.
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6 Senate seats Republicans can flip to take back the majority
Less than a week from Election Day, six crucial Senate seats remain within striking distance for Republicans.
Republicans are currently in the minority, holding 49 seats, while Democrats and Independents combined hold the remaining 51 seats. While Republicans would have to flip only two seats to win back the majority, there are several pickup opportunities for the GOP.
Despite his previous double-digit wins, Casey's polling advantage has plummeted to just a few points, which is a good sign for his Republican challenger.
The two most likely seats Republicans are looking to secure are in Montana and West Virginia. West Virginia's Senate seat is an open race between Republican Gov. Jim Justice and Democratic candidate Glenn Elliott. The candidates are running to replace Independent Sen. Joe Manchin after he announced his retirement in November 2023.
Cook Political Report has rated the Senate race in West Virginia as "solid Republican," which is reflected in the massive polling advantage Justice boasts over Elliott. In addition to the Mountain State, Republicans are enjoying some rosy poll numbers farther west.
In Montana, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy has pulled Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, who has previously won his seat by narrow margins. Recent polls put the three-term Democratic Senator at a substantial polling deficit, and Cook Political Report rated the seat "lean Republican."
Although the race is closer than the one in West Virginia, the tide has turned in Sheehy's favor, and Tester is taking notice. Tester's campaign has repeatedly labeled him "bipartisan" and has even held off from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, making him the only Democratic Senator to do so. Tester's decision to distance himself from his party is reflective of Sheehy's momentum in the red state.
While winning Montana and West Virginia would be enough for Republicans to flip the Senate, there are four more seats rated "toss-ups" that the GOP could secure.
In Michigan, Republican candidate Mike Rogers and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are going head-to-head in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Although Slotkin initially had a several point polling advantage, Rogers has narrowed her lead and even surpassed the Democrat in some polls.
Another key race Republicans have managed to tighten is in Ohio, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown is battling GOP candidate Bernie Moreno. Although Brown has won all three of his terms by a substantial margin, Moreno has chipped away and even pulled ahead of the incumbent's increasingly narrow polling advantage.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey is facing a similar challenge from Republican candidate Dave McCormick. Casey first won in 2006 by a significant margin and easily held onto his seat for two more terms. Despite his previous double-digit wins, Casey's polling advantage has plummeted to just a few points, which is a good sign for his Republican challenger.
Further east in Wisconsin, Republican candidate Eric Hovde has gained ground against Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Like other races along the Rust Belt, Baldwin's initial polling advantage has rapidly diminished as Election Day approaches. Although the race remains tight, Republicans remain optimistic.
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