5 key House seats Republicans are likely to flip



While the Republicans' majority is increasingly narrow, there are currently five competitive blue seats that may help the GOP hold onto the House.

The seats of Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola of Alaska, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Jared Golden of Maine have all been ranked as toss-ups by Cook Political Report.

Alongside these toss-up ratings, polling also suggests these seats are within Republicans' reach going into November.

In 2022, Peltola is the first Democratic candidate to have been elected to Alaska's sole congressional seat in more than half a century after the state adopted a ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank their preferred candidates rather than a typical two-party primary system. As a result, Republican candidates Nick Begich and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin split the GOP vote, allowing Peltola to flip the seat blue for the first time since 1970.

Despite the ranked-choice system, Peltola is facing a challenge from just one Republican candidate, Nick Begich, after Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out to consolidate the GOP vote. Combined with Alaska's reliably red voting history, recent polls from the National Republican Congressional Committee put Peltola at an electoral disadvantage.

Peltola is also featured on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "frontline members" list consisting of the most competitive blue seats.

Peltola's fellow frontliner, Caraveo, is also at risk of losing re-election to her Republican challenger. While one September poll puts the Colorado Democrat at a narrow three-point edge, a recent poll from early October puts her in a dead heat with Republican challenger Gabe Evans. Colorado's 8th Congressional District is also perfectly split between Republicans and Democrats, according to Cook Political Report.

Caraveo won her seat in 2022 against Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer by less than 1%.

Since Slotkin opted to run for Senate, Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel and Republican challenger Tom Barrett have gone head to head for the seat. Slotkin flipped the longtime red seat blue in 2022, making the +2 Republican district a potential layup. Polling is also trending in Republicans' favor, with Barrett ahead of Hertel by four to six points.

Slotkin secured her seat in Michigan's 7th Congressional District in 2022 by 5.4%.

Perez, who is also featured on the DCCC's list of vulnerable front-liners, is set to face off against Republican candidate Joe Kent for the second time. Although Perez managed to flip the seat in 2022, she is currently polling dead even against Kent in the +5 Republican district, which may reinstate a red streak in Washington's third congressional district.

Perez, who has refrained from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, defeated Kent in 2022 by less than 1% after former Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler retired.

Golden, who has served Maine's congressional district for three consecutive terms, is also facing a tight race against Republican candidate Austin Theriault. Despite being a +6 Republican district, Golden won his seat by a 1% margin in 2018 and just over 6% in 2020 and 2022.

Despite his historical electoral advantage, a recent poll shows Golden at a three-point deficit against Theriault.

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Liz Cheney endorsed Democrat Elissa Slotkin. New poll shows her double-digit lead has evaporated completely.



The lead that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) held over her Republican challenger, Tom Barrett, has now completely evaporated, according to a new poll.

Ironically, the survey showing Slotkin and Barrett in a dead heat was taken one day after Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) campaigned for Slotkin.

What does the poll show?

The Mitchell-MIRS poll of likely general election voters shows that Barrett actually leads Slotkin by less than one percentage point, 48.4% to 47.5%.

Independent voters are helping propel Barrett ahead of his Democratic opponent. The survey found that each candidate is receiving 89% of support from voters in their respective parties, but Barrett holds a 3-point advantage — 48% to 45% — over Slotkin among independent voters.

The result suggests Barrett is on the receiving end of a significant final push, because the same poll, conducted just three weeks ago, showed that Slotkin held an 11-point advantage over Barrett.

Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research, said the latest result indicates what is happening nationwide.

[A]s we are seeingnationwide and within Michigan, there seems to be a late last minute surge to Republicancandidates. That surge has moved Barrett into a statistical tie and has also moved Tudor Dixoninto a tie with Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The momentum in the race would seem to indicatethat if Republicans turn out in high numbers next Tuesday, Barrett may win a very close race.

The Cook Political Report agrees that Michigan's 7th Congressional District is a toss-up.

What about Cheney?

The survey was conducted on Nov. 2, one day after Cheney traveled to the Great Lakes State to endorse Slotkin.

The Democratic lawmaker thus became the first Democrat that Cheney has ever endorsed.

"If we want to ensure the safety of our republic, we have to walk away from politics as usual," Cheney said at a campaign event. "We are going to look beyond partisan politics. If the people in our party are not doing the job they need to do, than we're going to vote for the people in the other party, because we are Americans above all else."

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Republican legislators request a full audit of the Michigan 2020 election



Republican legislators in Michigan are requesting a full audit of the 2020 general election before any of the results are officially certified.

State senators Lana Theis and Tom Barrett on Wednesday sent letters to Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and the Michigan Board of Canvassers reviewing multiple allegations of voter fraud and elections crimes made in affidavits filed by the Trump campaign and others. The letters request that a "full audit" of the election be completed prior to any of the results being certified by the state.

"Every citizen deserves to have faith in the integrity of the election process and its outcome," the letters state. "It is our responsibility, as elected public servants, to assure the people of Michigan of the process's integrity through complete transparency and the faithful investigation of any allegations of wrongdoing, fraud, or abuse."

The letter cites allegations of widespread irregularities in the Michigan vote-counting process made in an affidavit filed by the Trump campaign as part of a lawsuit challenging the results of the election. The allegations include counting ineligible ballots; counting late ballots after illicitly pre-dating them; illegal ballot duplication; barring Republican poll challengers from observing the transposition and certification of certain absentee ballots; and more.

"These claims deserve our full attention and diligent investigation to ensure fairness and transparency in our election process," the letter states.

"As such, and due directly to these issues, we are requesting a full audit to be conducted of the 2020 General Election prior to the certification of any results.

"Now, we must take every possible step to ensure that all Michiganders, and all Americans, have confidence that the State of Michigan conducted this election with integrity and accuracy. That can best be accomplished by a thorough audit and a verification that our election law and processes were correctly administered. Any fraudulently processed votes and unfair obstacles placed in front of legal poll challengers and watchers disenfranchise voters of every citizen of Michigan, regardless of their political affiliation"

"Every legal vote must be counted," the letter concludes.

Some of the claims of voter fraud mentioned in the letters have been disputed by Michigan election officials.

Reports of a Dominion Voting Systems machines "glitch" in Antrim County that caused erroneous unofficial results to show Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in a heavily Republican area were attributed to "human error" by Secretary of State Benson. Her office said the county failed to update its election management software, which was used to report unofficial results, Bridge Michigan reports. The error was identified and corrected by county officials and is not believed to be widespread, according to the State.

"As with other unofficial results reporting errors, this was an honest mistake and did not affect any actual vote totals," the Department of State said. "Election clerks work extremely hard and do their work with integrity. They are human beings, and sometimes make mistakes. However, there are many checks and balances that ensure mistakes can be caught and corrected."

Other county clerks who spoke to Bridge Michigan said they experienced no errors with Dominion voting equipment.

Additionally, the city of Detroit, Wayne County, and the Michigan Democratic Party have denied the allegations made in the Trump campaign's lawsuit, claiming the affidavits rely on "hearsay, speculation and unfounded conspiracy theories."

"Most of the objections raised in the submitted affidavits are grounded in an extraordinary failure to understand how elections function," the city of Detroit said, according to MLive.

The defendants responded to several of the allegations made by plaintiffs, saying they are false or misunderstand Michigan election law.

Allegations, for example, that plaintiffs were told not to verify signatures on absentee ballots are true, the city of Detroit said, because the signatures were already verified by clerks before arriving at the counting center, as mandated by state law.

More from MLive:

Claims that Republican poll challengers were denied meaningful access are false, as multiple witnesses said there were an abundance of them at the TCF Center. Once capacity was reached, officials did stop allowing in more challengers until a challenger of their party exited.

Plaintiffs also argue a bunch of unsecured ballots showed up at the TCF Center overnight. Those were not filled out ballots, but blank ballots delivered to the TCF Center for the purposes of processing ballots that were damaged or required duplication because the original couldn't be processed.

The plaintiffs also claimed that ballots received late were being backdated. City and state officials said there was a "clerical error" where the date stamped on absentee ballot envelopes wasn't entered into the system like it should have been.

Officials decided to have workers enter the date stamped onto the envelope into the system – all of which were from before the 8 p.m. Election Day deadline. Republican challengers were consulted and decided not to challenge the procedure at the time.

No late ballots could have been counted because no ballots received after 8 p.m. Tuesday were even delivered to the TCF Center, the city of Detroit said.

Democrat Joe Biden was declared the winner of the Michigan presidential election, leading President Trump by 146,123 votes.