The GOP’s 2028 ticket math is already brutal



The ink will not even be dry on the final 2026 midterm ballots before Washington turns to the next race: the battle for the White House in 2028.

Election Day ends November 3. By the morning of November 4, the campaign for America’s next president will already be under way.

There is one rule every VP nominee must follow: Do not become the story. The job is to amplify the presidential candidate, not compete with him.

The biggest names — Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among them — will dominate early speculation. But the more interesting question may be the second spot on the ticket.

Vice presidential picks are no longer afterthoughts. Gone are the days when running mates were chosen simply to “balance the ticket.” Today’s contenders are expected to serve as attack dogs, media stars, policy messengers, fundraising powerhouses, and trusted governing partners.

They must energize the base, reassure swing voters, and be ready to step into the Oval Office if necessary.

Which running mate gives the Republican nominee the greatest advantage?

The answer will not be about geography alone. It will be about chemistry, fundraising, media skill, governing experience, and the ability to help win the handful of battleground states likely to decide another close election.

Several Republicans are already generating early speculation.

Andy Ogles — Tennessee, 11 electoral votes

Ogles belongs at the top of the watch list.

The Trump-endorsed Tennessee congressman has built a reputation as one of the House’s most outspoken conservatives, championing limited government and an unapologetic defense of Trump-era policies.

Ogles pairs an easygoing manner with hard-line positions. He has become a familiar figure in congressional battles over immigration, federal spending, election integrity, and cultural issues.

As chairman of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection, Ogles also works on an issue likely to grow more important in future campaigns.

Tennessee is safely Republican, so his value would lie less in changing the Electoral College map than in energizing conservatives across other states.

Byron Donalds — Florida, 30 electoral votes

Donalds combines strong media skills with a compelling personal story and growing national recognition.

Frequently mentioned as a leading contender in Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial race, the Florida congressman has become one of the Republican Party’s most visible communicators. Supporters argue that his appeal extends beyond the party’s traditional coalition, making him one of the GOP’s fastest-rising figures.

With Florida’s 30 electoral votes already central to any Republican path to the White House, Donalds would bring both state-level strength and national media reach. His New York roots also have some Republicans wondering whether he could help the party make inroads with voters in the Northeast.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders — Arkansas, 6 electoral votes

Sanders brings executive experience and years in the national spotlight.

The Arkansas governor first became a national figure as White House press secretary, then returned home to lead a reliably Republican state. Her familiarity with the Trump movement, fundraising network, and communications experience continue to make her a frequently mentioned possibility for a future Republican ticket.

Arkansas’ six electoral votes are not in doubt. Sanders’ value would come from her executive résumé, conservative credibility, and ability to speak directly to the Trump coalition.

Her appearances at high-profile fundraising events, including in Palm Beach, have only fueled speculation about her national ambitions.

Tim Scott — South Carolina, 9 electoral votes

Scott has built his national profile around economic opportunity, education, faith, and conservative policy priorities.

After his 2024 presidential campaign, the South Carolina senator remains a respected figure within the party and has continued expanding his national profile.

South Carolina’s nine electoral votes are safely Republican. Scott’s appeal would lie less in delivering his home state than in his optimistic message, donor network, and ability to broaden the ticket’s tone without abandoning conservative priorities.

RELATED: Trump to address declassified intel revelations about 2020 foreign interference: Report

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The Trump name may not be leaving the stage

Another variable remains impossible to ignore: the Trump political brand.

Donald Trump Jr.’s name continues to circulate among supporters and commentators as a potential future candidate. Although he has repeatedly said he is focused on advancing the America First movement rather than seeking office himself, his national profile, fundraising network, and loyal following keep him in nearly every early conversation about 2028.

Unlike many political heirs, Trump Jr. has spent years campaigning across the country, building relationships with conservative activists, appearing regularly in conservative media, and becoming one of the Republican Party’s most recognizable surrogates.

Whether he ultimately seeks the presidency, accepts a vice presidential nomination, or remains one of the party’s most influential campaign voices, his involvement would almost certainly keep the Trump family’s political movement at the center of Republican politics.

There is one rule every VP nominee must follow: Do not become the story. The job is to amplify the presidential candidate, not compete with him.

In a country where elections are often decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of battleground states, even a small advantage can mean the difference between victory and defeat.

Exclusive: JD Vance minces no words with BlazeTV host Allie Beth Stuckey about Israeli influence, Iran deal



Vice President JD Vance, whose Friday trip to Switzerland for U.S.-Iran peace talks was postponed owing to another bloody exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, paused to reflect and speak with the host of BlazeTV's "Relatable with Allie Beth Stuckey" this week about the current political moment, where he's coming from, and where America might be headed.

Besides discussing chicken farming, the need to emulate the enduring hope of Christian martyrs, what Catholics and evangelicals can learn from one another, and what messaging changes the pro-life movement should make to win the "persuasion battle," Stuckey and the vice president broached the correlated topics of the Iran deal and Israeli influence in American politics.

'Outsized' Israeli influence? 'Israel derangement syndrome'?

Stuckey noted that the right has been roiled by a disagreement — especially in the wake of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk's assassination — about whether "Israel has an outsized influence in the U.S."

'Already, the critics of the deal are being proven wrong.'

Vance, who on Thursday blasted Israeli critics of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and insinuated that Israel had previously sabotaged the peace process via escalations in Lebanon, told the BlazeTV host, "I certainly think that Israel, like a lot of other countries, tries to influence American politics. I sort of take that as a given."

The vice president noted further that "American leaders have to be very careful that when we pursue something, we're doing it for America's best interest and not for any other country's best interest," adding that "it's just not true" that America's interests are always aligned with Israel's — or with the United Kingdom's, France's, or any other partner's interests, for that matter.

Vance cited the ongoing disagreements between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over how best to bring the Iran war to a close as illustrating the occasional divergence between the two nations' interests.

RELATED: Trump signs Iran deal, blasts 'fools' after meltdowns by Sens. Cruz and Cassidy

Ken Cedeno/AFP/Getty Images

While cognizant that criticism of Israel and Israeli influence sometimes "bleeds into Jew hate" and that "sometimes criticism of the Israeli government can be expressed in a way that's anti-Semitic," Vance — who has faced intense criticism by Iran hawks and Israeli officials this week — underscored that it's just "not the case that every criticism of Bibi Netanyahu's policy decisions leads to anti-Semitism or is anti-Semitic."

The vice president identified two "critical mistakes" he perceives advocates for Israel routinely making: first, failing to delineate between American interests and Israeli interests; and second, "always conflating criticism of a particular government with Jew hatred — because if everything is Jew hatred, then nothing is Jew hatred."

Stuckey generally agreed but highlighted an ideological condition she has observed on the right — which she termed "Israel derangement syndrome" — in which certain critics of Israel attribute all of their problems to the foreign power, its influence, and its people.

Vance affirmed that "both are bad" but suggested he has been "particularly sensitive" in recent days to Israeli influence and criticism of America's resistance to it because of his defense of Trump's decision to end the Iran war.

Clarification on the Iran deal

Democrats in Congress, Iran hawks, Israeli officials, and some Republican lawmakers have complained incessantly this week about the Iran deal.

One of the chief concerns raised about the deal is the sixth of the agreement's 14th points, which states, "The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Vance noted, "It's not our money."

A source with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters that the fund is a private investment vehicle and will not include any government money or grants. Companies around the world have reportedly agreed to commit financing.

President Donald Trump said this week that the U.S. was "not investing; we're not putting up 10 cents."

"The biggest misconception, by far, is this idea that the deal has all these benefits to Iran," Vance told Stuckey. "The underlying way that it's structured is that they don't get any of the benefits — not a single thing — unless they perform a change in behavior."

With their military destroyed, their ability to threaten their neighbors largely diminished, their nuclear program and ability to enrich uranium "gone," and their economy in shambles, Vance said the Iranians are in a "tough spot." They now have the choice between getting "quite literally nothing" besides further turmoil — or behaving like "a normal regime," developing a positive relationship with the U.S., and securing investment from Qataris, Emiratis, and others in the region.

As for whether the deal will bear fruit, Vance cited the resumption of bloodless, toll-free maritime traffic down the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days as a good sign.

"Yesterday, we got more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz than we have at any point since the beginning of the conflict," said Vance.

"Already, the critics of the deal are being proven wrong in some of what they're saying that the Iranians have gotten but also what the United States has gotten."

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

VP JD Vance on Israel, Catholics vs. Evangelicals & Fatherhood | Ep 1362
play icon

VP JD Vance on Israel, Catholics vs. Evangelicals & Fatherhood | Ep 1362

NO ONE predicted Joy Behar's shocking reaction to meeting JD Vance



In a stunning turn of events that no one predicted, Joy Behar may have told Vice President JD Vance he should run for president.

Vance had a wide-ranging interview with the women of "The View" on Wednesday, where he was challenged on many of his political opinions.

'Look, Joy Behar is way tougher than the Iranians — and she and I are best friends now.'

After the interview, Behar indicated that she thought Vance had a "good vibe" "for a Republican" and admitted that he is "intelligent" enough to make an "interesting" presidential candidate. She made the comments on the "Behind the Table" podcast about the show.

The show's executive producer, Brian Teta, asked Behar to discuss her private comments with Vance. Teta claimed Behar advised Vance off-camera to run for president, a claim Behar did not deny.

"I don't mind a Republican on the city level, because it needs a little discipline. But on the national level, I want somebody with a good heart, and those are more in the Democratic Party in my opinion," she clarified.

"They care about the poor. They help people," Behar claimed. "The Republican Party is much more about saving taxes for rich people. So I'm not a Republican."

Teta revealed that Vance had said he was more nervous about appearing on "The View" than he had been about the vice presidential debate in 2024 against Gov. Tim Walz. Behar went on to praise Vance even more.

"I don't think that he's a bad guy. So if he runs against, say, a [California Democrat Gov.] Gavin Newsom, that would be an interesting debate to see those two, because they're both intelligent," she added.

A video clip of the surprising interaction was posted to social media, where it garnered hundreds of thousands of views.

Vance even pointed to their unlikely friendship when commenting on the Iran peace deal during a White House media briefing on Thursday.

RELATED: 'Should be nowhere near Congress': Even 'The View' thinks Graham Platner is TERRIBLE

"I have seen some progressive criticisms of me personally, saying, 'What experience does the vice president of the United States have with hostile, high-stakes negotiations?'" said Vance at the podium.

"And I would point those progressive critics to the fact that just two days ago, I spent over an hour on 'The View.' So I actually have a great experience in very hostile negotiations!" he added. "I mean, look, Joy Behar is way tougher than the Iranians — and she and I are best friends now, so we're gonna get to a good place."

Video of his comments also received thousands of views.

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

FAA contractor charged for allegedly threatening to ‘kill you — Donald John Trump’



A Federal Aviation Administration mechanical engineering contractor finds himself at risk of significant jail time over an email he allegedly sent the White House, according to a press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Hampshire.

The 35-year-old man, Dean DelleChiaie, of Nashua, was arrested on Monday and appeared in court on Tuesday on a charge of interstate communication of a threat against the president. If convicted, the FAA contractor faces up to five years in federal prison and a $250,000 fine.

The suspect allegedly searched the phrase ‘I am going to kill Donald John Trump.’

An affidavit in support of the charge filed by a U.S. Secret Service special agent details the alleged actions of DelleChiaie. According to that affidavit, the Nashua man first came to the notice of the Secret Service near the end of January after the FAA IT department contacted the USSS. The contact was made after the suspect allegedly took his government-issued computer to the IT department and asked for his search history to be deleted.

While working on the suspect's request, the IT department employees noticed disturbing search topics on his computer.

According to the affidavit, these search topics are alleged to have included:

  • How to get a gun into a federal facility;
  • Previous assassination attempts against the president;
  • The percentage of the population that wants the president dead; and
  • The phrase “I am going to kill Donald John Trump.”

The searches alleged to have been uncovered did not just include threats against the president. The affidavit claims that DelleChiaie also searched for the locations of Vice President JD Vance’s and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s homes. Even more disturbingly, the searches are alleged to have included queries on the names and ages of both of their children.

Shortly after discovering the searches, the FAA placed DelleChiaie on suspension, the affidavit claims.

Within days of the USSS being made aware of his alleged search history, a Secret Service agent and an officer of the Nashua Police Department interviewed the suspect at his apartment in early February.

During the interview, the suspect is alleged to have confirmed that he made the searches on his work computer. He is also alleged to have said he realized it was “crazy for him to do this on his work computer.”

RELATED: Stunning new details reveal the 'depraved' motivation of the suspected WHCD shooter

Hinting at a possible motive, the affidavit stated that the suspect allegedly told the agent and officer that he conducted the searches because “he was upset with the current administration based on multiple subjects, including the election, presidential pardons, and the ‘Epstein files.’”

Law enforcement also noticed alleged disturbing notes on a whiteboard on his refrigerator door. One of the notes is claimed to have read, “Say arrest me ‘I am going to murder Donald John Trump — per defense of oath.’”

During the interview, the suspect is alleged to have admitted to being in therapy for depression and currently uses a variety of drugs, including ketamine, cannabis, mushrooms, and alcohol, according to the affidavit. He also allegedly claimed to have a firearm locked in a safe in his apartment and other firearms at a friend’s home.

That interview did not result in an arrest or charges.

In late April, the suspect again came to the notice of the FBI after the White House received an email sent to its public email address. The address the email came from is alleged to be a Gmail address in use by DelleChiaie. The alleged email, sent on April 21, days before the latest assassination attempt on President Trump, read:

Subject: Contact the President

I, Dean DelleChiaie, am going neutralize/kill you — Donald John Trump — because you decided to kill kids — and say that it was War — when in reality — it is terrorism. God knows your actions and where you belong.

On Friday, within two weeks of the alleged email, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Hampshire filed charges against DelleChiaie. He was arrested on Monday and appeared in court on Tuesday before U.S. Magistrate Judge Andrea K. Johnstone for an initial court appearance.

During those proceedings, Johnstone appointed Assistant Federal Public Defender Eric Wolpin as DelleChiaie’s attorney. The public defender’s office told Blaze News via email that it had no public comment on the case at this time.

Johnstone also ordered the suspect detained pending his trial, citing the seriousness of the charges, strong evidence presented, employment status, history of substance abuse, use of weapons, dangerousness to the public, and that he was “undeterred” after a visit by the Secret Service to his home.

An email sent by Blaze News to DelleChiaie’s reported Gmail address remained unanswered at the time of publication.

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

'F**k you, Ted': Sen. Cruz caught on secret recordings attacking Vance, complaining about Trump, report says



Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a Calgary-born Republican widely expected to make another bid for the White House in 2028, was reportedly caught on tape tarring Vice President JD Vance with the same brush he uses on Tucker Carlson and criticizing President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

Unlike politicos keen to fault Vance for his enduring friendship with Carlson, Cruz has avoided publicly broadening his critique of the podcaster to the vice president. Behind closed doors, however, Cruz has apparently exercised no such restraint.

'JD is Tucker's protégé, and they are one and the same.'

In secret recordings provided to Axios by an unnamed Republican source, which were apparently taken during a pair of private meetings with donors last year, Cruz allegedly characterized the vice president as a non-interventionist puppet of Carlson.

"Tucker created JD," Cruz reportedly says in the recordings. "JD is Tucker's protégé, and they are one and the same."

Cruz and Carlson have long appeared at odds on matters both foreign and domestic. Carlson, for instance, castigated the senator in 2022 for calling the Jan. 6, 2021, melee a "violent terrorist attack."

The enmity between them reached an apparent high, however, in June, when the two clashed on Carlson's show over whether the U.S. should militarily back Israeli actions against Iran.

In the immediate wake of the combative interview, Cruz accused the host of engaging in "gotcha" journalism, attacking Trump, defending terrorists, demonizing Israel, and "running interference" for the Iranian regime.

RELATED: Which way after Trump? 'Strong Gods' may offer the solution.

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

While both men have traded barbs in the months since, Cruz appears increasingly fixated on Carlson, accusing him of being anti-Semitic, an Islamist, and — in response to Carlson's criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — "#AmericaLast."

In the recordings, Cruz also allegedly accused Vance of working with Carlson to oust former national security adviser Mike Waltz over his support for U.S. strikes on Iran.

Waltz "supported being vigorous against Iran and bombing Iran — and Tucker and JD took Mike out," Cruz allegedly told donors.

While Waltz's hawkish stance on Iran and alleged behind-the-scenes coordination with Netanyahu reportedly angered Trump, the straw that broke the camel's back may have been Waltz's accidental invitation of an anti-Trump polemicist to a private high-level group chat on Signal where senior administration officials were discussing sensitive military plans.

On the recordings, Cruz allegedly also claimed that Vance worked in concert with Carlson to help Daniel Davis, an Army veteran critical of Israel's actions in Gaza, secure a senior national intelligence position — a post that Davis was ultimately denied.

Carlson told Axios that he "didn't have anything to do" with the ousting of Waltz or attempted onboarding of Davis.

The Texas senator appears in recent months to have been laying the groundwork for a 2028 bid in which he would run as the kind of Republican Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 Republican primaries. According to Axios, this has involved courting powerful pro-Israel donors and "positioning himself as a traditional free-trade, pro-interventionist Republican."

Whereas early pulling suggests that Vance is poised to sweep the GOP 2028 primary, Cruz presently has a 2% chance of becoming the 2028 GOP nominee, according to Polymarket, and proved unable to capture 1% in an October poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Blaze News has reached out for comment to the offices of Vance and Cruz.

A spokesperson for Cruz told Axios that the senator is "the president's greatest ally in the Senate and battles every day in the trenches to advance his agenda" and that "those battles include fights over staffers who try to enter the administration despite disagreeing with the president and seeking to undermine his foreign policy."

The spokesperson added, "Sen. Cruz is proud of those fights, his accomplishments, and his close relationship with the president. These attempts at sowing division are pathetic and getting boring."

'They will be terminated on the spot.'

The Texas senator allegedly also attacked Trump's tariff policy on the recordings from his private meetings with donors.

Cruz allegedly regaled donors with the tale of a call that he and other senators made to Trump that "did not go well" after the president introduced his Liberation Day tariffs.

"Trump was in a bad mood," Cruz allegedly told the donors. "I've been in conversations where he was very happy. This was not one of them."

"Mr. President, if we get to November of [2026] and people's 401(k)s are down 30% and prices are up 10%-20% at the supermarket, we're going to go into Election Day, face a bloodbath," Cruz allegedly recalled telling Trump. "You're going to lose the House, you're going to lose the Senate, you're going to spend the next two years being impeached every single week."

Cruz allegedly told donors that Trump's response was, "F**k you, Ted."

At the mention of "Liberation Day" in reference to the tariffs, Cruz allegedly joked with donors in the meeting, "I've told my team if anyone uses those words, they will be terminated on the spot. That is not language we use."

Blaze News has reached out to the White House for comment.

According to the Texas Politics Project, Cruz's job approval rating is presently 35% overall and 69% among Republicans.

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

Kamala Harris's VP Vetting Team, Led by Covington & Burling Duo Eric Holder and Dana Remus, Asked Josh Shapiro If He Was a 'Double Agent for Israel'

Kamala Harris's vice-presidential vetting team, led by a pair of Covington & Burling partners, Eric Holder and Dana Remus, asked Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro whether he had ever been an Israeli agent or communicated with "an undercover agent of Israel," according to Shapiro's forthcoming memoir.

The post Kamala Harris's VP Vetting Team, Led by Covington & Burling Duo Eric Holder and Dana Remus, Asked Josh Shapiro If He Was a 'Double Agent for Israel' appeared first on .

Biden-voting Secret Service agent stripped of security clearance after spilling beans to undercover reporter



The U.S. Secret Service has placed an agent assigned to Vice President JD Vance's protective detail on administrative leave after he allegedly divulged sensitive security secrets to an undercover female reporter.

In footage published on Tuesday by investigative journalist James O'Keefe, USSS agent Tomas Escotto appears to share various specifics regarding Vance's security detail with the reporter as well as photos revealing the methods used to transport the vice president.

'When one person falls short, it places an added burden on colleagues who are left to rebuild trust.'

"What we uncovered is troubling," said O'Keefe, who indicated that the engagements took place in the wake of the attempted break-in at Vance's Cincinnati home. "We hope that bringing this to light strengthens security and helps prevent future vulnerabilities in our government."

The video and text messages published by O'Keefe appear to show that Escotto, a self-identified Biden voter, provided the reporter with:

  • real-time locations of the vice president;
  • insights into Vance's future travel plans;
  • the particulars of how far ahead and behind agents walk in relation to Vance;
  • the security detail's shift schedule;
  • photographs taken on duty containing location metadata; and
  • photographs providing insights into how the vice president's vehicle is secured and stored for international travel.

After indicating in the footage that he only received his citizenship in 2018, Escotto criticizes the Trump administration's immigration policies, stating, "They're deploying tactics that shouldn't be deployed."

RELATED: Georgetown prof starts running after realizing he's talking to James O'Keefe — and his racial 'slurs' are on camera

Al Drago-Pool/Getty Image

O'Keefe noted that ahead of publishing the video, his team coordinated with the USSS, redacting sensitive operational details at their request.

Blaze News has reached out to Vance's office for comment.

Deputy Secret Service Director Matthew Quinn confirmed in a statement to O'Keefe that the incident is under investigation and "the employee involved has been placed on administrative leave with his clearance suspended and access to agency facilities and systems revoked."

The USSS is now also requiring all personnel to retake the agency's anti-espionage training "in order to ensure employees are aware of the threats posed by individuals aiming to exploit agency employees for information about our protective operations."

Quinn said in a memo to USSS employees that was obtained by O'Keefe, "Over the past several months, an agency employee was deliberately targeted and manipulated by a citizen-journalism media organization that misrepresented itself in an effort to get close to the employee and expose sensitive information. This is the second time in less than a year that our personnel have been subjected to this same deceptive tactic."

"When one person falls short, it places an added burden on colleagues who are left to rebuild trust that each of us works hard every day to earn and protect," added Quinn.

Turning Point USA spokesman Andrew Kolvet was among those who emphasized the gravity of O'Keefe's damning exposé, stating, "This is one of the most disturbing videos I've seen in some time. Those tasked with protecting the president, VP, and their families should be a top national priority."

"That a Secret Service agent could be leaking sensitive information and endangering their lives is a national security threat of the highest importance," added Kolvet.

Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, noted, "The Secret Service is a dangerous mess."

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

'Something historic': CNN analyst GOBSMACKED by how Vance polls against Nikki Haley, others



The 2028 presidential election is 34 months away, and in that time, there are sure to be plenty of surprises. There are, however, already clear signs of who may ultimately make a bid for the White House — and how they might fare in the primaries.

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, expressed surprise on Monday by how Vice President JD Vance performed in a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters against former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nimarata "Nikki" Haley, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and other prospects.

'The rest of the field are like going around in go-karts.'

Enten alluded to prediction market odds indicating that Vance is "running well ahead of the field" and that "nobody else is even close."

Polymarket puts Vance's chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 at 54%. The site has the chances of the runner-up, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, securing the nomination at 9%. This high confidence in Vance's chances is similarly expressed on the PredictIt site as well as on the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi, which suggests Vance and Rubio have a 48% and 10% chance of securing the nomination, respectively.

"JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point," said Enten. "That's really what we are looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time."

Enten noted that Vance's staggering early lead reflected in the prediction markets "is not coming out of nowhere" and directed CNN talking head Sara Sidner's attention to a poll conducted in October by the University of New Hampshire.

RELATED: 'All in': TPUSA's Andrew Kolvet sets sights on 2028 presidential candidate after AmFest

Photo by Caylo Seals/Getty Images

The poll found that among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, 51% said they would vote for Vance; 9% said they would vote for Haley; 8% said they would vote for Gabbard; 5% said they would vote for Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; 4% would vote for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.); and 3% each would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Calgary-born Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who appears poised to run as the kind of Republican President Donald Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 GOP primaries, proved unable to capture 1% in the poll.

"Take a look here! JD Vance at 51%!" said Enten. "The next closest is Nikki Haley, who's at 9 — who's at 9! I mean, what is that? That's 42 points ahead of the pack."

"There's a reason why he's such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you're going to be the Republican nominee for president," added Enten.

When asked by Sidner whether it was rare to see an early lead of this magnitude, Enten said, "I looked back. Hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president — JD Vance is the only one."

"JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time," continued Enten.

While Vance's early lead is unprecedented, the last five sitting vice presidents who ran for president all became their parties' nominees.

A straw poll was also taken earlier this month at Turning Point USA's annual AmericaFest, where widowed CEO Erika Kirk endorsed the vice president.

Blake Neff, the producer of "The Charlie Kirk Show," noted that Vance won the AmFest straw poll "by more than Donald Trump won the 2024 one we did two years ago." Whereas 82.6% of respondents previously said they wanted to see Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, 84.2% of respondents said they wanted to see Vance as their nominee in 2028.

The UNH poll that found a majority of likely GOP voters support Vance likewise found that there is a much closer race developing across the aisle.

Among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, 19% of respondents say they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; 15% would vote for California Gov. Gavin Newsom; 14% would vote for New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; 11% would vote for failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris; 8% would vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); and 6% would vote for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

Vance refuses to throw Tucker Carlson under the bus, emphasizes America is a 'Christian nation'



Several speakers at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest offered competing and ostensibly irreconcilable views of the way forward for the MAGA coalition, in some cases identifying one another as cowards, saboteurs, or worse.

In his speech closing out the conference in Phoenix, Vice President JD Vance emphasized that "President Trump did not build the greatest coalition in politics by running his supporters through endless, self-defeating purity tests."

'Do I have disagreements with Tucker Carlson? Sure. I have disagreements with most of my friends.'

Vance, the Republican front-runner going into 2028 whom TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk endorsed last week for president, faces mounting public pressure to throw Tucker Carlson under the bus over his criticism of Israel and perceived bigotry as well as to censure Nicholas Fuentes, the head of the so-called Groypers who has been particularly critical of the vice president.

Andrew Kolvet, executive producer of "The Charlie Kirk Show," told the Washington Post, "The reasonable actors can see that JD is being a reasonable arbiter of this debate, and that’s a really important signal to send out — that Israel is our ally. They're an important ally. They're not our only concern, though."

"I think JD understands the needs, wants, and concerns of young Americans as well, if not better than, any other leading politician in the country," added Kolvet.

"I didn't bring a list of conservatives to denounce or to deplatform," Vance told the crowd of thousands gathered on Sunday.

"We have far more important work to do than canceling each other."

The vice president underscored that the "America First movement" constitutes a big tent welcoming those who seek to make America "richer, stronger, safer, and prouder."

In a recent interview with Sohrab Ahmari, the U.S. editor of UnHerd, Vance provided some insights into why he refused to denounce Carlson or waste any time discussing Fuentes.

"Tucker's a friend of mine," he told Ahmari. "And do I have disagreements with Tucker Carlson? Sure. I have disagreements with most of my friends, especially those who work in politics. You know this. Most people who know me know this. I’m [also] a very loyal person, and I am not going to get into the business of throwing friends under the bus."

RELATED: Poll provides clear idea of who's poised to sweep 2028 Republican presidential primary

Photo by Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images

Vance noted further that "the idea that Tucker Carlson — who has one of the largest podcasts in the world, who has millions of listeners, who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election, who supported me in the 2024 election — the idea that his views are somehow completely anathema to conservatism, that he has no place in the conservative movement, is frankly absurd."

As for Fuentes, Vance intimated that a condemnation of the 27-year-old host of "America First" podcast wasn't worthwhile.

"[Fuentes'] influence within Donald Trump's administration, and within a whole host of institutions on the right, is vastly overstated, and frankly, it's overstated by people who want to avoid having a foreign-policy conversation about America's relationship with Israel," Vance said in the interview.

'Anyone who attacks my wife, whether their name is Jen Psaki or Nick Fuentes, can eat s**t.'

While the vice president maintains that Israel is an "important ally," he indicated that he welcomes substantive disagreements with the Middle Eastern nation as well as debates at home about American foreign policy.

Vance told Ahmari that anti-Semitism and all forms of ethnic hatred "have no place in the conservative movement" but noted that "if you believe racism is bad, Fuentes should occupy one second of your focus, and the people with actual political power who worked so hard to discriminate against white men should occupy many hours of it."

RELATED: DEI hustlers lash out after Trump official solicits discrimination complaints from white men

Photo by Caylo Seals/Getty Images

Although recognizing Fuentes as an apparent sideshow to an important conversation, Vance did make a point of telling Ahmari, "Anyone who attacks my wife, whether their name is [former Biden press secretary] Jen Psaki or Nick Fuentes, can eat s**t."

On the theme of America First's genuine spirit of inclusion, the vice president made clear in his AmericaFest speech that the Trump administration and the broader movement supporting it has "relegated DEI to the dustbin of history, which is exactly where it belongs."

"In the United States of America, you don’t have to apologize for being white any more. And if you're an Asian, you don't have to talk around your skin color when you're applying for college, because we judge people based on who they are, not on ethnicity and things they can't control," said Vance. "We don't persecute you for being male, for being straight, for being gay, for being anything. The only thing that we demand is that you be a great American patriot."

'It is better to die a patriot than live a coward.'

In addition to risking offense with his acknowledgement that white Americans needn't apologize for their pigmentation and with his refusal to betray a friend, Vance realized the fears articulated in recent years by liberals and anti-Christian activists by noting in his speech that "the only thing that has truly served as an anchor of the United States of America is that we have been, and by the grace of God, we always will be, a Christian nation."

For the benefit of those who might strategically misconstrue his meaning, Vance clarified that Americans don't have to be Christian but that "Christianity is America's creed," despite the decades-long campaign by the left to remove Christianity from public life.

"That creed motivated our understanding of natural law and rights, our sense of duty to one’s neighbor, the conviction that the strong must protect the weak, and the belief in individual conscience," continued the vice president. "Even our famously American idea of religious liberty is a Christian concept."

The vice president noted further that the "fruits of true Christianity" are good men like his murdered friend, Charlie Kirk.

"The fruits of true Christianity are good husbands, patient fathers, builders of great things, and slayers of dragons," said Vance. "And yes, men who are willing to die for a principle if that's what God asks them to do. Because so many of us recognize that it is better to die a patriot than live a coward."

Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!