Trump Proved Rigged Elections Are Winnable. Now It’s Time To Un-Rig Them
The institutions that make elections less free and fair, from the corporate press to corrupt election offices, are weakened but not reformed.
At the last minute, third-party groups submitted nearly 100,000 voter registration forms in Arizona's most populous county, creating headaches for both election workers and voters alike, a report from AZ Central says.
On the final day to register to vote in Arizona — which this year would have been October 7 — these groups dumped as many as 90,000 forms on the Maricopa County Recorder's Office, an "unprecedented" number, according to spokesperson Taylor Kinnerup.
'Places where there are more questions around eligibility — those places could potentially have longer lines because we know there will be more questions there.'
What's more, a sizeable portion of these forms — some 30,000 or 40,000 of them — were heavily damaged and could not be processed. Still others were registered under names such as "Donald Duck" and "Mickey Mouse."
Of the 50,000 that could be processed, many still had defects. Some had missing information, AZ Central reported. Others were dated weeks earlier, and Arizona law requires third parties to submit voter registration forms within five days of collecting them, Kinnerup claimed.
Registrants whose addresses could be ascertained were issued a notice to cure their registration information before the deadline of 7 p.m. on Election Day. Those who followed through and fixed the missing information should be able to vote normally on Tuesday.
"All of the preliminary work has been done in terms of processing these forms," Kinnerup added. "Anything left to do is on the onus of the voter."
Those with a valid ID whose registration form is still missing some information will likely be able to complete the registration at the polling station and cast a provisional ballot that will be counted if and when officials determine that they were eligible to vote.
Others whose forms were too badly damaged will also likely be able to cast a provisional ballot, but that ballot will not be counted unless they previously registered to vote and that registration remains active, AZ Central reported. The outlet did not clarify why such individuals would re-register to vote or require a provisional ballot if they have an active voter registration.
As of Friday, elections workers have already processed 4,800 provisional ballots, well above average, Elections Department spokesperson Jennifer Liewer claimed.
"It's certainly a much higher number than we've seen previously since moving to a vote center model."
Officials are also concerned that these problems and uncertainties will increase wait times at the polls even more on Tuesday. They had already warned Election Day voters to expect to wait at least an hour before casting a ballot.
"Places where there are higher provisionals, places where there are more questions around eligibility — those places could potentially have longer lines because we know there will be more questions there," Tammy Patrick, a former Maricopa County elections official who now works at the Election Center, told the outlet.
Despite going into great detail about potential fallout from tens of thousands of faulty voter registrations submitted at the 11th hour, AZ Central called out what it described as "election denialism," implying that voters who distrust the system are the problem rather than the system itself.
The outlet did not identify the third-party groups that had submitted the registrations.
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With just a week until Election Day, Republicans' record early voting and registration turnouts may be sending warning signs to Democrats.
Roughly 27.4 million Americans nationally have cast their votes early, with some swing states already exceeding 2016 rates. Although Republicans have historically hesitated to embrace early voting, several swing states that collect data based on party affiliation show that Republicans are now outpacing their Democratic counterparts.
“You’d rather be in our position than theirs,” James Blair, a political director for Trump, told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s too early to start declaring victory, but the swings in our direction are very positive.”
'Looking at who is showing up, I would say Republicans should feel good and Democrats may have some work to do.'
Trump is currently outperforming Harris in Arizona by 1.5 points despite losing the state to Biden by 0.4% in 2020. At the same time, Republicans are also outpacing Democrats when it comes to early voting.
As of Monday, 32% of Arizona's electorate have cast their ballots by mail-in or early voting. Of those 1.4 million ballots, 589,000 are Republican ballots, 486,000 are Democratic, and 326,000 are from third-party or independent voters.
Arizona Republicans have also registered in greater numbers going into November compared to previous election cycles. As of October 2024, there are over 1.5 million registered Republicans and roughly 1.2 million registered Democrats. This nearly six-point registration gap between the parties is double the advantage Arizona Republicans had going into 2020.
Republicans hold a similar advantage in the neighboring Sun Belt state of Nevada. There, Harris is trailing Trump by an average of 0.7 points, although Biden won the state by 2.4% in 2020.
Republicans also have an unprecedented leg up in Nevada when it comes to early voting. Of the 712,000 early ballots that were cast as of Friday, over 280,000 are Republican ballots, 245,000 are Democratic, and nearly 180,000 were from unaffiliated voters.
There has also been a favorable shift toward Republicans with respect to voter registration. Of the 2.4 million registered voters in Nevada as of September 2024, there are about 718,000 Democrats, nearly 674,000 Republicans, and about 1 million third-party or unaffiliated voters. In contrast, of the 1.9 million registered voters in September 2020, about 742,000 were Democrats, 626,000 were Republicans, and 604,000 were third-party or independent voters.
Not only did overall voter registration in Nevada increase by roughly half a million, but there was also an increase in Republican, independent, and third-party registration while Democrats saw a decrease. However, unlike Arizona, Nevada implemented automatic voter registration in 2020, which may have contributed to this shift.
Some voters attribute Trump's edge in the Sun Belt to a broader shift among Latino voters. Polls comparing Harris' and Biden's support among Hispanics have shown that the current Democratic nominee is hemorrhaging support with the demographic, while Trump has managed to gain ground.
Farther east, in North Carolina, Trump is leading Harris by an average of 0.9 points, while also winning the state in 2020 against Biden and in 2016 against former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Although the race is tight, Republicans have made strides.
Over a third of North Carolina's eligible voters, or 3.1 million ballots, have been cast as of Tuesday. Of those early votes, Republicans are slightly outperforming Democrats, with roughly 1.1 million votes from Republicans and about 1 million from Democrats. Despite the close margin, Harris has actually pulled ads and resources from the state just a week from the election.
Although Republicans are slightly ahead, they are actually outnumbered when it comes to voter registration in North Carolina. As of October 2024, roughly 2.4 million voters are registered Democrats and 2.3 million are Republicans. The registration gap has significantly narrowed compared to October 2020, with over 2.6 million registered Democrats and 2.2 million Republicans.
Republicans are also gaining ground in Pennsylvania, the most electorally significant of the swing states. Although Trump lost the state to Biden in 2020 by 1.2%, the Republican nominee now boasts an average lead over Harris of 0.4 points.
Of the 1.4 million early ballots cast in Pennsylvania, nearly 815,000 have been cast by Democrats, while just 439,000 have been cast by Republicans. Although Democrats are outpacing Republicans, the GOP has begun to close the gap.
Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin don't collect data based on party affiliation, but there is still a record turnout for early voting and voter registration.
“Looking at who is showing up, I would say Republicans should feel good and Democrats may have some work to do,” Michael Bitzer, a professor at Catawba College, told the Wall Street Journal.
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