Democrats were virtually salivating as they unanimously voted against Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act ahead of the Independence Day holiday, which certainly should give pause to Republicans as they prepare for the midterms and the 2028 elections beyond.
What gives the Democrats hope that they can campaign effectively against Trump’s mega-bill? Is it the fact that Republicans were able to make permanent the 2017 tax cuts? Are they planning to campaign against the “no tax on tips” provision that even Kamala Harris supported? Will they claim that funding border security and mass deportation of illegal aliens is somehow bad for the country?
Remember, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is the codification of the agenda that President Trump ran on in 2024. It’s not tricky. It’s not nefarious.
No, no, and no. Democrats are not idiots. They know that they have the short straw on all of those 80-20 issues. So they are going back to the same issue they have demagogued since 2008 — health care. By tugging on the heartstrings of the American public, they know they can use fear to win votes.
During debate in both the House and Senate, Democrats relied on questionable forward-looking interpretations of the impact of the mega-bill on Medicaid to claim that nearly 12 million low-income people would lose health coverage if the bill passed, as it ultimately did.
The left-leaning Congressional Budget Office supplied some of that data, and by the time the vote was finalized on July 3, various other groups were adding fuel to the fire. KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, added the 12 million people who would allegedly lose Medicaid to the five million who KFF claimed would lose coverage in the Affordable Care Act marketplace, concluding that at least 17 million would be at risk. Then, there was the claim that Trump’s budget would deny food stamps to hungry children and pregnant women.
But not so fast. Despite the bleak picture painted by Democrats and weak-kneed RINOs that Trump wanted poor people to just die and be done with it, there were reasonable explanations for all the budget changes that had nothing to do with genocide.
Reductions in Obamacare premium subsidies are just an acknowledgment that the COVID crisis is over, and those boosted premiums are no longer necessary. Likewise, food stamps are still going to be provided to the disabled, families with young children, and the impoverished elderly, even if Democrats want to pretend otherwise.
And pretend they will, so if Republicans want to prevail in future elections, they had better fully understand the truth about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, because otherwise, they will be painted as heartless elitists who want their fellow Americans to die by the millions.
Fortunately, the road map is already clear on how to respond to the demagoguery of the Democrats, and it was modeled by two members of the Trump administration on the Sunday morning talk shows over the long holiday weekend.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, faced down their hostile questioners on CNN’s “State of the Union” and CBS’ “Face the Nation” respectively.
Bessent, who by all accounts is the most competent member of Trump’s Cabinet, immediately pushed back on Dana Bash’s supposition that the bill would cut benefit programs like Medicaid:
Only in D.C. is a 20% hike over 10 years a cut. Medicaid funding will go up 20% over the next 10 years. The people who Medicaid was designed for — the pregnant women, the disabled, and families with children under 14 — will be refocused. The able-bodied Americans are not vulnerable Americans, so a work requirement or a community service requirement, that’s very popular with the public.
Bessent then struck a blow against the argument that millions of Americans will lose their Medicaid coverage because they didn’t remember to reapply for benefits under the new rules.
“It is a group of Democrats who unfortunately seem to think that poor people are stupid,” he said. “I don’t think poor people are stupid. I think they have agency, and I think to have them register twice a year for these benefits is not a burden. But these people who want to infantilize the poor and those who need these Medicaid benefits are alarmist.”
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Over on “Face the Nation,” Hassett was interviewed by Weijia Jiang, senior White House correspondent for CBS. She dutifully recited the claim that 12 million people would lose their Medicaid coverage, but Hassett struck back hard:
Let’s unbundle that a little bit. What we are actually doing is asking for a work requirement, but the work requirement is that you need to be looking for work or even doing volunteer work, and you don’t need to do it until your kids are 14 or older, so the idea that that’s going to cause a massive hemorrhaging in availability of insurance doesn’t make a lot of sense. And if you look at the CBO numbers, if you look at the numbers they say are going to lose insurance, about five million of those are people who have other insurance. ... If they lose one, they’re still insured.
Hassett also explained that the best way to get insurance is to get a job, and so if the Trump economy stimulates growth, it will help people to happily leave Medicaid after they gain employment.
On another question, about whether the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is harmful because it grows the national debt by between $3 trillion and $5 trillion over the next 10 years, Hassett responded by reminding the reporter that the Congressional Budget Office is underestimating growth in the economy compared to what happened in the first Trump term pre-COVID. Based on that historical record, Hassett expects the debt to actually shrink by $1.5 trillion in the next decade.
What Hassett didn’t say, but which should be on the lips of every Republican defending their votes for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is that over the 10 years from 2014 to 2024, the federal debt increased by more than $17.5 trillion. Admittedly, Trump’s first term played a role in that thanks to COVID, but only Trump and Republicans are making any effort today to shrink the debt. If left up to Democrats, every social program in the budget would see increased funding, deficit be damned.
To summarize, here are the talking points that every Republican candidate for Congress must master if they hope to beat back Democrat distortions:
Those will do for a start. Remember, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is the codification of the agenda that President Trump ran on in 2024. It’s not tricky. It’s not nefarious. And if it is unpopular, that’s only because Democrats have been lying about it.
Now, it’s up to Republicans to fight back against the big Medicaid lie, or else pay the price for their silence.
Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
Most mainstream press accounts have largely ignored one obvious source of the Los Angeles riots — namely, that the Biden administration released more than enough illegal aliens into this country to populate a wholly new Los Angeles. In the aftermath of those riots, it’s an appropriate time to ask this question: How many illegal aliens did the Biden administration actually let into the United States?
According to the Congressional Budget Office, from 2021 through 2024, a net 10.3 million people immigrated to the United States. That figure reflects the number of (legal or illegal) immigrants who entered the U.S., minus the number who left. As a result of this huge immigration influx, the portion of the U.S. population that is foreign-born hit 16.2%, per the Congressional Budget Office, surpassing the all-time record of 14.8% set in 1890. That mark lasted for more than 130 years, but it couldn’t survive the Biden administration.
One can only wonder how many potential terrorists got across Biden’s porous border without being encountered.
In fact, the percentage of the population that is foreign-born is probably even higher than 16.2%, as that figure was for 2023 (up from 15.6% in 2022). Since a net 2.7 million people immigrated to the U.S. in 2024, according to the CBO, and about 500,000 foreign-born residents die annually (based on the CBO’s estimate for 2023), the foreign-born population rose by an estimated 2.2 million in 2024 — from 55.1 million to about 57.3 million. So the percentage of the population that is foreign-born likely hit about 16.8% last year (57.3 million out of 342 million). In comparison, in 1970, the portion of the U.S. population that was foreign-born was 4.7%, which is just over a quarter of the current rate.
Put another way, on the cusp of next year’s quarter-millennial anniversary of American independence, about one out of every six people now living in the U.S. is foreign-born, versus one out of every 21 on the eve of the bicentennial. That’s a massive population transformation — one unlike anything our country has ever experienced.
Most of those who were added to the foreign-born population during the Biden years were added illegally. From 2021 through 2024 — a period that coincides almost perfectly with Biden’s presidential term (having 97% overlap) — the net increase in the number of illegal aliens in the U.S., based on CBO estimates, was 7.1 million people. In comparison, the entire population of Los Angeles is 3.9 million.
Note that this represents the net increase. The gross increase in the number of illegal aliens under Biden was likely close to 10 million. The CBO only estimates the gross increase for a portion of Biden’s term, but its partial tallies can yield a reasonable estimate for the whole four-year span.
Citing numbers obtained from the Department of Homeland Security, the CBO estimates that in 2023 and 2024, the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. was 5.9 million, while the net increase was 4.3 million. That’s about four new illegal aliens added (by being released into the country, evading capture, or overstaying a legal authorization) for every one that was subtracted (by leaving or being legalized).
So the ratio between the gross increase and the net increase was about 4 to 3. Assuming the same ratio in 2021 and 2022 — when the CBO estimates that the net increase in the number of illegal aliens was 2.9 million — suggests the gross increase over that span was about 3.9 million. Adding the 5.9 million cited above reveals a gross increase of about 9.8 million illegal aliens across Biden’s four years. That’s more than the population of New York City — or all of New Jersey.
The CBO switched from using fiscal-year figures for 2023 to using calendar-year figures for 2024 in estimating the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens (and the releases, evasions, and overstays that compose that gross increase). But the number of encounters along the southwest border was very similar in FY 2023 as in CY 2023 (being 3% higher in CY 2023), so this switch likely had little effect on the CBO estimates. Indeed, for the net increase in the number of illegal aliens, the CBO provides both FY 2023 and CY 2023 numbers, and they differ by just 0.1 million.
The vast majority of these roughly 10 million illegal aliens didn’t overstay their visas, per the CBO. Rather, they either evaded capture and escaped across the border or were released by the Biden administration into the country’s interior.
By far the biggest cohort was deliberately released. As U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell wrote during a Biden-era case, U.S. Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz “testified that the current surge differs from prior surges that he [has] seen over his lengthy career in that most of the aliens now being encountered at the Southwest Border are turning themselves in to USBP officers rather than trying to escape the officers.”
Ortiz, whom the Biden administration selected as Border Patrol chief, said at the time that aliens are likely “turning themselves in because they think they’re going to be released.”
They were generally right. The CBO estimates that in 2024, Biden’s DHS released more than 1.5 million aliens into the U.S. — 570,000 were encountered along the open border and released, and another 960,000 were encountered at ports of entry along the border and released — while another estimated 800,000 escaped across the border.
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In FY 2023, DHS released about 2 million aliens into the U.S. — 1.1 million of whom crossed the open border and were released, 900,000 of whom were released at ports of entry — while another estimated 860,000 escaped across the border. That’s a total of 5.2 million evasions or releases over two years (specifically over FY 2023 and CY 2024, the periods for which the Congressional Budget Office provides figures). During the same 24 months, 715,000 people overstayed their legal authorizations to be in the country, per CBO estimates.
In other words, about seven-eighths (5.2 million out of 5.9 million) of those who joined the ranks of illegal aliens over those two years either evaded capture or were released into the country, rather than overstaying their visas. Applying that same seven-eighths figure to 2021 and 2022 — when the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens was about 3.9 million — suggests that about 3.4 million illegal aliens evaded capture or were released over those two years. That brings the estimated four-year tally to about 8.6 million releases or evasions under Biden (5.2 million plus 3.4 million) — a number larger than the populations of 38 individual states.
To sum up, about 10 million illegal aliens were added to the U.S. population during the Biden administration. Of those, about 8.6 million came across the southern border — usually being released but sometimes evading capture — rather than overstaying their visas. After accounting for illegal aliens who either left the country or became legalized, the result was a net increase of 7.1 million illegal aliens during the Biden years, per the CBO.
That net increase of 7.1 million illegal aliens equals about two-thirds of the overall net increase of 10.3 million (legal or illegal) immigrants during Joe Biden’s tenure. After four years of Biden, the foreign-born population now makes up a higher percentage of the overall U.S. population than at any time on record, including during the great waves of immigration in the 19th century.
But it’s not just how many but who came into the country that matters. During the three full fiscal years (FY 2018-2020) immediately preceding the Biden administration, there were a total of nine encounters along the open border between Border Patrol officials and noncitizens on the terrorist watch list. During the three full fiscal years (FY 2022-2024) that took place entirely during Biden’s term, there were 370 such encounters — a 41-fold increase. Across all four years of the Biden presidency, the number of such encounters was approximately 400. One can only wonder how many potential terrorists got across Biden’s porous border without being encountered.
On his first day in office, Biden issued an executive order prioritizing “equity.” His DHS soon quoted that order, made clear it would apply it “in the immigration and enforcement context,” and thereafter refused to enforce federal immigration law requiring the detention of asylum-seekers. Such “equity”-driven actions were, in the words of Judge Wetherell, “akin to posting a flashing ‘Come In, We’re Open’ sign on the southern border.”
As a result of that neon invitation, 7.1 million more illegal aliens entered the U.S. or overstayed their visas than left the U.S. or became legalized while Biden was in office — more than the combined populations of Los Angeles, D.C., Boston, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Miami. This was a deliberate result of Biden’s “equity” agenda, and Americans are paying the price.
Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics.
State and federal officials ought to be doing everything they can to protect their hard-earned dollars from being used improperly or illegally. For once, things are finally looking up in this regard.
The idea that this provision would somehow 'increase the uninsured' seems, if not laughable, at least highly speculative.
Our country cannot get its fiscal house in order unless and until it starts slowing the explosion of Medicare spending.
After securing the border and enacting mass deportations, Trump and the GOP should indeed turn their attention to balancing the budget and paying down the debt.
But the American people aren’t stupid. Many see right through the media bias, which might explain why trust in the mainstream press continues to fall.
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