‘Never Going To Get Them Back’: Dem Party’s Efforts To Win Male Voters Are Doomed, Its Own Strategists Say
'trying to study them like they're some exotic species'
Nate Silver: Young men's mental stability helps put them out of Democrats' reach
Nate Silver, an American statistician and founder of the now-shuttered political analysis blog FiveThirtyEight, recently dug into why men, young men in particular, don't like Democrats — a trend that has Democratic operatives scrambling both for answers and Joe Rogan-sized remedies.
Silver indicated that a big part of Democrats' problem might be that those young men beyond their reach are not mentally unstable or attracted to a mentally ill style of politics.
Losing men
Democrats — whom Americans largely regard as weak and ineffective — are right to be desperate.
'Young men's attachment to the GOP has grown.'
After all, in the 2024 election, President Donald Trump captured 60% of the white male vote, 54% of the Hispanic male vote, and 21% of the black male vote toward a combined total of 55% of the male vote overall.
Men ages 18-44 majoritively voted Trump. Firming up that figure were the young white men who previously supported former President Joe Biden but jumped ship and swam rightward, voting for Trump by a 28 percentage point margin.
Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, noted in a report last month that "since 2013, young men's attachment to the GOP has grown, but most of this growth has occurred among young white men, whose affiliation with the GOP went from 26% in 2013 to 36% today."
While young white men largely drove the trend, Deckman noted that "young Hispanic men saw a 6-percentage-point increase in Republican identification since 2021."
Meanwhile, "young women have consistently been less likely to identify as Republican and more likely to identify as Democratic than their male counterparts across racial groups," wrote Deckman. "In 2024, around one in four young white women aligned with the Democratic party (26%), compared with 18% of young white men."
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As with young women's leftward drift, young men's rightward orientation does not appear to be a flash in the pan, hence the recent efforts by Democrats — who failed to heed James Carville's pre-election warnings about the fallout of "faculty lounge" attitudes and the party's dominance by "too many preachy females" — to diagnose and correct for their problem.
Mental strength is Democratic kryptonite
Citing data from the 2022 Cooperative Election Study, a 50,000-plus person national survey administered by YouGov, Silver noted that higher self-reported mental health correlates with conservative political views.
"I think an underrated factor in the 'how can Democrats win back young men' debate is the effects of personality, which differ especially among younger voters [and] are quite strongly correlated with voting preferences," tweeted Silver.
Whereas only 20% of liberals reported having "excellent" mental health, 51% of conservatives said the same. On the bottom end, 45% of liberals said their mental health was poor, while only 19% of conservatives reported the same.
'Conservative ideology may work as a psychological buffer.'
"So the young men that Democrats have trouble with aren't necessarily the ones who have been captured by the conservative 'manosphere' or who are looking for a helping hand," wrote Silver. "Rather, it's those who report relatively high mental health and see Democrats as being too neurotic and perhaps constraining their opportunity to compete and reap the rewards of their work."
Silver suggested that compounding Democrats' problem is that they are seen as "nits," which he defined as "neurotic, risk-averse, sticklers for the rules, always up in everyone's business."
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The link between ideological persuasion and mental or emotional well-being is well-documented.
For instance, a 2023 Columbia University study published in the journal Social Science & Medicine – Mental Health found that conservatives are generally happier than their leftist counterparts by a significant measure.
Epidemiologist Catherine Gimbrone and her co-authors found that "conservatives reported lower average depressive affect, self-derogation, and loneliness scores and higher self-esteem scores than all other groups."
"Beginning in approximately 2010 and continuing through 2018, female liberal adolescents reported the largest changes in depressive affect, self-esteem, self-derogation, and loneliness. Male conservative adolescents reported the smallest corresponding changes," said the study.
When attempting to account for the disparity, the researchers suggested that "conservative ideology may work as a psychological buffer by harmonizing an idealized worldview with the bleak external realities experienced by many."
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How Harris lost the election
President-elect Donald Trump secured his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris early Wednesday morning, and exit polling indicates which demographics may be responsible.
Harris failed to drive support among voting groups like women, Latino men, and young voters, despite being historically Democratic, according to a CNN analysis comparing exit polls from the past three election cycles. While Trump was able to mobilize support among unlikely demographics, Harris' inability to secure these key groups likely cost her the election.
While different demographics shifted in Trump's favor, his greatest advantage over Harris may have been one key issue.
Although Democrats have historically secured the female vote, Harris underperformed compared to her predecessors. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the female vote by 13 points in 2016, while President Joe Biden won it by 15 points in 2020. Harris, on the other hand, won the female vote by just 10 points, according to the latest CNN exit polling.
At the same time, Trump regained an edge with male voters that slightly slipped in 2020. Trump won the male vote by 11 points in 2016 but dipped down to just an 8-point advantage in 2020, according to CNN. This time around, Trump won the male vote by 10 points.
Latino men, more specifically, also shifted away from Harris and toward Trump. Clinton won Hispanic men by a staggering 31 points in 2016, and Biden won them by 23 points in 2020, according to CNN. Trump completely reversed this trend in 2024, winning Latino men by 10 points.
Minority voters across the board also swayed in Trump's favor. In 2016, Clinton won by 50 points among minority voters with a college degree and 56 points among minority voters without a college degree, according to CNN. Biden lost some ground in 2020, winning college-educated minority voters by 43 points and non-college-educated minority voters by 46 points. Harris continued this downward trend, winning among college-educated minorities by 35 points and non-college-educated minorities by just 32 points.
Trump also gained ground among young voters. In 2016, Clinton won among voters aged 18 to 29 by 19 points, while in 2020, Biden won among the same age range by 24 points, according to CNN. This time around, Trump shrunk the Democratic advantage among young voters, with Harris winning by just 13 points.
While different demographics shifted in Trump's favor, his greatest advantage over Harris may have been one key issue.
In 2024, roughly two-thirds of voters said the economy was poor, and nearly half of voters said they are doing worse now than they were four years ago, according to CNN. This sentiment inevitably gave Trump an advantage over Harris, who has served alongside Biden during these last four years.
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Crucial demographics may hold the key to a Trump victory as race tightens
Key voting blocs that have voted reliably blue are underperforming compared to previous election cycles, which could send warning signs to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. At the same time, increased turnout from some reliably red demographics could give former President Donald Trump the edge he needs.
One of the most glaring disadvantages for Democrats going into the election is the comparatively low turnout from urban voters. At this point in the race, there is a 12.8-point deficit in urban voter turnout across battlegrounds compared to 2020. Rural voter turnout is comparatively higher, with just a 3.9-point difference.
This could be particularly harmful for Democrats this election cycle, given that the majority of urban voters are Democratic and a majority of rural voters are Republican.
Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.
"Regardless of how we slice and dice the demographics, rural voters are going to be very supportive of the former president," Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told Blaze News. "Urban voters won't vote in lockstep, but they will be disproportionately in support of Kamala Harris, so that demographic turnout is going to matter."
There is also a partisan divide between male and female voters, as men tend to lean more Republican while women lean more Democratic. Although women vote in greater numbers than men do, they are underperforming this election cycle, which could throw a wrench into Harris' chances.
"It's not just a 'get out the vote rally.' It's a 'you've got to vote because of X, Y, and Z," McHenry told Blaze News. "There's definitely a bit more urgency than what we would normally see from Democrats at this stage of the race."
Women voters dipped down by 7.9 points across swing states compared to 2020, while men dipped down by seven points. Even though more women have voted than men, their deficit combined with slipping male support could put Harris' campaign in jeopardy.
Declines in black and Hispanic votes could also put Harris in trouble. Compared to 2020, there is a 10.1-point turnout deficit among black voters in battlegrounds and an 11.7-point decline among Latino voters. Given that both Hispanic and black voters have overwhelmingly voted for Democrats in the past, this decline could threaten Harris' campaign.
Harris has certainly taken notice of this trend. Over the past month, her campaign has released a tailored "opportunity agenda" for both black and Hispanic men.
"The idea that there's this sort of opportunity agenda targeted at specific demographics, and the fact that Kamala Harris has drafted Barack Obama to turn out black males and essentially extending her reach to get people to turn out, shows that they're definitely concerned about getting the traditional Democratic base out to the polls," McHenry told Blaze News.
Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.
"Like most poker players would say, just give me one of the hands, and I'll beat you with that," McHenry told Blaze News. "Honestly, it really is so close that it's hard to say."
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Democrats, Dudes & Data: Why Men Are Leaving | Ep 1072