Pollster Frank Luntz CRUSHES Democrats' hopes over favorable polling

Polling expert and political strategist Frank Luntz explains why the polls showing a comfortable lead for Democrats are not dependable.
Luntz explained during an appearance on CNN Thursday why many may now be making the same polling mistake he made in 2016 and claimed polling just isn't capturing an accurate picture of the electorate.
'I'm still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely persons to believe the polls.'
"What do you think the polls may be missing? Do you think they're under-sampling the kind of voter that Trump usually brings out, that sort of non-engaged voter that may not respond to a phone call from a pollster?" asked anchor Boris Sanchez.
"We know that they don't respond to phone calls. We know that in the exit polling back in 2016, and I say this publicly because I want people to hear this," Luntz said.
"You know, I teach at West Point. I cannot lie, cheat, or steal. The cadets can't. I can't. I got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls. Trump voters walked away, refused to participate, because they thought that it was against them," he added.
"They thought that the polls were all biased," Luntz said. "And that's what Republicans are being told right now: 'Don't believe the polls. They're not accurate.' Well they may be, we're about to find out."
He went on to say that turnout is the key to the election, and the polling may not be accurately reflecting which group of people actually shows up at the ballot box.
"I'm still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate. They're less likely to believe the polls are happening. I'm most interested in turnout," he continued.
"They're polling how the electorate overall feels and not polling the people [that] are actually going to participate. But in the end, who the hell cares?"
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Despite the warning about the polling, Luntz also said the president's historically low approval rating would affect Republicans' chances to win the midterm elections.
"That's not good at all, and he's as recently as three weeks ago called affordability a hoax. It's not a hoax if you can't afford eggs. It's not a hoax if you can't afford steak," said Luntz.
"I don't know if they understand how people actually feel, that they are anxious, nervous, angry because their lives are tougher today than they used to be," he added.
He warned that if the polls were indeed correct, Democrats would have a big night on November 3.
2026 midterm polling map: Where the polls stand
Every Senate, governor, and House race with public polling on one map, state by state, with the Blaze polling average. From Blaze News.
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Iowa poll SHOCK: Pollster admits how it skewed key race results toward Democrats when GOP really leads

Skepticism is mounting about the narrative that a blue wave is set to crash in the midterms. There are, after all, signs that the pollsters may have once again greatly missed the mark.
In a move sure to further shake Democrat confidence, one outfit has openly second-guessed its weighting processes and whether recent polls have properly captured Republican sentiment.
'People want to see the predictive accuracy of the poll,' [but] 'polls can't really do that.'
State Navigate, a nonpartisan organization that engages in election forecasting and public polling, noted on Tuesday that it conducted a poll last week in an Iowa state Senate district that President Donald Trump won by 21 points in 2024 but that flipped to a Democrat in a January 2025 special election.
The polling outfit contacted over 400 likely voters in the district and initially found that Democrat state Sen. Mike Zimmer had a three-point lead over Republican challenger Joe Stutting and that in the Iowa governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand was five points ahead of Republican Zachary Lahn.
These results left the pollsters suspicious.
"We noticed two problems in our survey: 1. There are more likely Trump voters who are lying about their 2024 vote for the president than anywhere else we’ve polled, and 2. Even accounting for this, rural Republicans in Iowa are difficult to reach," said the polling outfit.
A similar miss resulted in humiliation and a career change in 2024 for J. Ann Selzer, whose November 2024 poll showed then-Vice President Kamala Harris with a three-point lead over Trump in Iowa. Trump ultimately ended up winning the state by over 13 points.
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The pollster found that fewer respondents recalled having voted for Trump in 2024 than likely actually had voted for him and noted in an analysis that has since been reworded, "Donald Trump carried SD-35 by 21 points in 2024, but in our standard version of this poll, which isn't weighted to recalled vote, likely voters recall a Trump win of just 7 points."
Because of the discrepancy, the pollster ran the results again. However, this time, pollsters weighted answers so that 2024 recall votes more closely resembled the actual heavily pro-Trump results from two years ago. Working on the apparent presumption that Democrats are poised to fare better this cycle, the pollsters then shifted every region roughly five points toward Democrats.
Despite the blue shift, this change in weighting produced a red result — a red result that was partially hidden by an error in the pollster's analysis that also skewed toward the Democrat. The analysis said Zimmer was up by two points, when the weighted poll actually showed a two-point lead for Republican Joe Stutting.
Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, confirmed the analysis error to Blaze News.
The weighted survey also found Lahn and Sand tied in the governor's race with 45% each.
"That still bodes well for Democrats given the Republican lean of this district, but a 5-point difference shows how weighting decisions can change the outcome," wrote the pollster in the analysis. "Our experience polling this competitive race raises concerns similar to Echelon Insight’s Patrick Ruffini’s: Republicans, particularly rural Republicans in Iowa, are very unresponsive to surveys, at least for now."
"The real surprise here is someone actually admitted a mistake," BlazeTV host and Iowa native Steve Deace told Blaze News. "That’s rare these days."
"Rural voters have always been the toughest to poll, but throw in how reticent Trump supporters justifiably are to respond to polls mostly from outlets who lie daily about them and Trump, and now you know why Trump has outperformed his Midwest polling every election cycle," continued Deace. "Assuming most of these public polls aren’t just Democrat ops, of course."

This is hardly the first splash of cold water to land on Democrats' hopes and dreams.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten suggested last week that Republicans in Midwest races may once again be poised to outperform polls — and that if they do so, as they did in 2018 and 2024, then "there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold on to the United States Senate, even if Democrats win in places they don't historically win in, like Texas."
Concerns, particularly on the left, that pollsters are missing the mark again have prompted Emerson College director of polling Spencer Kimball to go on defense.
Kimball recently told the NH Journal podcast that the polling industry "has never been stronger. Our analysis has never been stronger."
Kimball emphasized, however, that while "people want to see the predictive accuracy of the poll," "polls can't really do that."
"Sometimes they’ll fall on the right side, and sometimes they come up a little light on that side," continued Kimball. "But generally speaking, they fall within that range about 90 percent of the time."
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What’s really behind the opposition to data centers

Increasing numbers of Americans are deeply opposed to building more data centers. Over the summer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) imposed the strictest data center rules in the country, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) ordered a statewide moratorium on hyperscale construction, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) paused new approvals in Texas pending a grid audit.
At the local level, dozens of county and municipal fights have followed no reliable partisan pattern. Polling from Heatmap and Embold, collected by anonymous Substack writer Cremieux, shows data center popularity plummeting over the last year.
Any actions seen as forcing data centers on voters who do not want them will only make matters worse.
Though Cremieux argues the opposition is fundamentally driven by NIMBYism (not in my back yard), I am unconvinced. The polling seems to follow the pattern you would expect if NIMBYism were the primary driver, but posing the problem as a generic national issue produces substantially less opposition.
The arguments most central to the anti-data-center cause, namely complaints about the effect on utility costs, seem to generate an outsized amount of discourse relative to their actual effect. For example, in Virginia — the world’s data center capital and the state where I live — the State Corporation Commission estimated that shifting capacity and distribution costs from households to the large-load rate class would lower a typical residential bill by about 3.4%, or roughly $5.52 a month.
In other words, the effect is something on the order of a Subway sandwich in 2008.
I want to be scrupulous, because the complaints about data centers are often not literally false. Households are indeed suffering from a pecuniary externality created by increased demand. But it is hard to reconcile the mostly muted effects with the surging level of emotional response.
Americans’ growing dislike of data centers stems not from animus toward any single company or product but from a cumulative reaction to the momentous technological changes of the past couple of decades.
Because AI is the latest harbinger of those changes — and offers revolutionary potential — it has inherited our culture’s immune response. This means these problems cannot be adjudicated simply by changing utility regulations or even bribing local communities.
RELATED: The dirty secret behind Big Tech’s data center boom

Three further factors have combined with the populist anti-tech feeling to make AI and, by extension, data centers unusually unpopular.
First, AI faces a particularly unfavorable coalition of constituencies. Its association with California and the tech industry has deeply soured much of conservative America toward it, and its association with billionaires and big business has soured many progressives. Even many techies feel personally threatened by the technology.
Second, those most aggressively advocating for data centers are not building them in their own back yards. Palo Alto, where I lived while attending grad school, has spent years fighting small-cell installations. One of the most prestigious retirement homes in the U.S., Channing House, recently fought to have wireless equipment removed from its roof.
In January, the city of Palo Alto wrote to the FCC opposing a rule that would speed up wireless approvals, while at the same time supporting the infrastructure needed to run AI-enabled services, so long as it retains the power to veto unwanted projects.
When the group that appears to benefit most from a technology is also most averse to its consequences, it is natural for the public to wonder what the tech world might be hiding. The anonymous author Polimath, writing in Marginally Compelling, gets closer to the underlying problem by viewing it as another front in the culture war, an outworking of long-simmering discontent with tech culture.
Third, much of the tech world itself seems increasingly concerned about the existential risk AI might pose to humanity. For example, earlier this month, Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years doing pretraining work at OpenAI and then Anthropic, publicly resigned, writing that both companies were racing toward self-improving superintelligence and “gambling with our lives.”
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Evan Hubinger, an alignment lead at Anthropic, replied that he agreed and put the odds of AI killing everyone within the decade above 10%. From talking to my friends at these labs, the modal person really does seem to think they are summoning the machine god. That prospect naturally feeds public opposition to AI.
Taken together, these factors help explain the public’s anger. The lines of the current debate have already hardened, and the grievances far predate the specific events of the day. Any actions seen as forcing data centers on voters who do not want them will only make matters worse.
But the centers will be built regardless. Demand is so enormous, and suitable locations are sufficiently plentiful, that only a small number of permissive communities, such as Loudoun County, are needed. If localities want to opt out, I see little reason to stop them.
However, the industry could take an important step if it wants to win broad American support.
Specifically, Big Tech should make a visible effort to build data centers near the communities where its executives and employees live. This would give them a way to begin convincing Americans that data centers are an asset worth having, not a liability worth dodging.
Concerns about water and electricity are simply not what most people are worried about, and addressing them will do nothing to solve the larger problem. Since these reasons are selected ex post to justify pre-existing opposition, defeating any single point will merely invite a hundred more.
If you are opposed to data centers, my guess is that saving $5 on your monthly utility bill wouldn’t be enough to change your opinion.
Editor’s note: This article was originally published at the American Mind.
'Fool me once': CNN analyst has bad news for Democrats who believe recent polls

Recent polling generally indicates that congressional Democrats are poised to come out on top in the midterm election. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is not convinced, however — especially considering pollsters' track record.
"We've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa," Enten told "CNN News Central" talking head John Berman on Wednesday.
'There's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate.'
A Marist Poll published on Wednesday showed U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 51%-44% in Michigan. The latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 47%-44% in Ohio. According to a Fox News survey conducted from Sept. 24-28, Democrat Josh Turek has a two-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa.
"Fool me once, shame on you," continued Enten. "Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question: Could it happen again?"
Enten highlighted how the GOP outperformed September 2024 polls concerning Senate races and the White House by 9 percentage points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Michigan. That same September, national polls suggested that Kamala Harris would win a presidential election that she ultimately lost in a landslide.
"I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024," said Enten. "So you look at this, and you go, 'You know what? Maybe we should just hold on a second here because we've seen this dance before' — and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast and counted."
RELATED: CNN analyst pours cold water on Democrats' dream of a political takeover in November

Berman insinuated that Trump not being on the ballot this time around might be a factor, but Enten noted that the lesson from the 2018 election — Trump's first midterm election — is that "it's the same exact story."
"The GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by 6 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 8 points in Michigan," said Enten. "The bottom line is this: Over the last few [election] cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024 — Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least 5 points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead."
The data analyst suggested further that if Republicans outperform their Midwest polls as they did in 2018 and 2024, then even with Democrats carrying states such as Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, there could end up being a 50/50 split in the U.S. Senate with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tie-breaker.
"So if history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate, even if Democrats win in places they don't historically win in, like Texas," said Enten.
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Democrat gives nonresponse when forced to face uncomfortable truth about his party's lack of support

A possible 2028 presidential contender has been forced to respond to a poll showing how few Americans believe Democrats actually care about them.
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona was being interviewed on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday when host Martha Raddatz pressed him about a poll saying only 34% of Americans believe Democrats care about people like them.
Kelly tried to distract from the unpopularity of the Democratic Party by criticizing the president.
"What does that tell you, what do you do about it if people just aren't feeling it from the Democrats, if you're sort of a default or people stay away from the race?" Raddatz asked.
"Well, I'll tell you what I'm doing about it. I've been traveling across the country basically nonstop for the last six months," said Kelly.
He went on to list the states he's been visiting, including New Hampshire and South Carolina, and added that he'd been to a Navajo parade in Arizona.
"Just talking to people and trying to understand their challenges in their homes, in their schools, in their communities," he added. "We have to deliver, there's no question about that."
After refusing to answer the question, Kelly pivoted to attacking President Donald Trump over the conflict in Iran.
The nonresponse fit into an earlier exchange from the same show where Kelly tried to distract from the unpopularity of the Democratic Party by criticizing the president.
Video of Kelly's nonresponse was posted to social media by the official account of the Republican National Committee.
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While Kelly's trips to the Navajo parade may not ease Democrats' polling woes, the president's popularity has also taken a dive owing to high gas prices and the conflict in Iran.
Democrats are hoping to seize control of at least the U.S. House of Representatives in order to thwart Trump's legislative goals for the latter part of his second term.
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