CNN analyst pours cold water on Democrats' dream of a political takeover in November



Pollsters and prediction markets are prophesying overwhelming Democratic success in the midterm election, which is now seven weeks away. CNN admitted in a recent analysis, however, that those hoping for a blue tidal wave might be left greatly disappointed in November.

Doom and gloom for the GOP

Polymarket presently suggests that Democrats have a 62% chance of taking the U.S. Senate and a 92% chance of taking the House. Kalshi similarly forecasts Democrats taking over the House and Senate.

'It’s going to be close.'

According to the Economist's latest midterm forecast, Democrats have a 93% chance of flipping the House and securing a 238-197 majority, and a 59% chance of taking the Senate.

The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats enjoying an eight-point edge on the generic ballot.

A recent NBC News poll found that while the Democratic Party is viewed more negatively than both President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, 50% of respondents favored Democratic control of Congress.

RELATED: The cost of living is coming for Congress

The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service/Getty Images

Pollster Nate Silver argued on Sunday that the idea of the Senate as a "toss-up" is "misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump."

Blue disappointment?

In light of recent polling, the average price of gasoline sitting at an estimated $4.44 per gallon, and the sense that the midterm vote serves as a referendum on Trump's policies, hope is mounting on the left that a blue wave will wash away the Republican trifecta in Washington.

That hope may, however, be unfounded.

CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein suggested just over a week ago that Democrats might not be in a position to exploit the president's waning public approval, Americans' economic woes, and growing political discontent.

In addition to noting that many Democratic candidates are not attracting the numbers of voters who disapproved of Trump in 2018 and 2020, Brownstein wrote that despite disenchantment among some voters on the right, few appear willing to turn coat.

"The share of non-MAGA Republicans who say they are still voting for Republicans this fall is about 20 points higher than the portion who approve of Trump’s performance," Brownstein wrote, citing GOP pollster Micah Roberts' analysis of CNBC survey data.

"There are a lot of people who may think, 'I don’t like Trump but ... I don't agree with the policies of the other party and where they would take us,'" said Roberts.

While Republican voters might not cast votes for Democratic candidates, Brownstein noted that the GOP still faces the possibility that disenchanted Republican voters might decide not to vote at all — a big problem given the enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters.

Voter enthusiasm might threaten Republicans' hold on power; however, the GOP's redistricting efforts have placed breakers before any blue wave.

After all, far fewer House seats are competitive now than were in 2018, and 13 House Democrats must now defend districts where Trump netted at least five points more than his share of the national vote, said Brownstein.

The CNN analyst cast greater doubt on Democrats' senatorial ambitions, noting that "of the Republican-held seats Democrats are most seriously contesting, Maine is the only one in a state that supported Harris; North Carolina is the sole other state on the Senate map where Harris even came close. Trump prevailed by double digits in every other state whose Senate seat Democrats are targeting."

Thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court's June ruling in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, the GOP — not similarly hard up for cash like the Democrats — also enjoys a financial advantage Brownstein reckons could be wielded to limit Democratic gains.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson told the New York Post earlier this month that instead of a blue or red wave this November, there will be "30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys."

"It’s just a handful of races, but every one of them will be decided by a few thousand votes. It’s going to be close," added Hudson.

The Cook Political Report projects that the GOP and the Democratic Party are set to win 208 and 205 House seats, respectively, and marked 21 seats as toss-ups.

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The data center mob wants your property rights too



The war on data centers has intensified to the point that localities across the country are banning them outright or stopping them through targeted zoning and regulation. The concerns are understandable. The political response is not.

Public opposition has jumped 12 percentage points in four months, with 61% now saying they oppose building new data centers, according to the Annenberg Public Policy Center. Opponents held 142 protests in 42 states on July 18, citing water use, noise, electricity demand, outages, pollution, and property values.

There is an obvious alternative for people who do not want a data center built on a particular parcel: Buy the land.

Predictably, politicians are turning against the industry.

On August 18, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) signed an executive order restricting data center construction and boasted that he was imposing “the strictest guardrails in the nation.” He denounced a history of industry “running roughshod over our communities to make a buck” and vowed that Pennsylvania would not be “bullied” or “bulldozed” by developers and their lawyers.

Critics noted that Shapiro, who faces re-election this year, had strongly supported data center construction and even placed projects in a fast-track approval program before the recent grassroots backlash.

The turn is broader than Pennsylvania. Some 210 counties and local governments now have active moratoriums on data center construction. More than 3,000 centers are operating in the United States, with another 1,500 under construction, Pew Research reports. Two-thirds of planned facilities are headed to rural areas, while 87% of existing data centers are urban.

It is reasonable to worry about harm from any large enterprise. Citizens have every right to warn property owners and neighbors about potential costs. They often have a moral responsibility to do so.

But concern does not create a general right to control someone else’s property.

No one can foresee all the consequences, positive or negative, of a novel enterprise. That is one reason we have courts: to hear claims of actual harm, determine responsibility, and order compensation or punishment where warranted. A functioning civil justice system reduces the need for sprawling systems of preemptive command and control.

Governments should not single out data centers with punitive taxes or regulations, nor should they subsidize them. Let them pay for the energy they use, comply with laws that apply generally, receive no privileged access to water or other resources, and answer in court if they injure others.

RELATED: The data center backlash is getting spiritual

Imaginima/Getty Images

That is a better rule than trying to calculate every hypothetical “social cost” in advance and empowering regulators to decide which enterprises may proceed. Markets reveal costs and benefits imperfectly, but government regulation does too — usually with fewer incentives to admit mistakes.

In a free society, you do not get to decide what other people do with their property merely because you dislike the proposed use. That remains true when “you” becomes “we.” A majority does not acquire a moral right to coerce simply by counting heads.

There is an obvious alternative for people who do not want a data center built on a particular parcel: Buy the land.

If you cannot afford it alone, put together a consortium. If you can afford it but would rather force the owner to accept your preferred use without paying him, then the problem is no longer the data center. It is your claim to control property you do not own.

Buy it, and you may use it as you wish — subject, of course, to the same rule protecting your neighbors from actual harm. Mission accomplished.

The developer will go somewhere else, taking the jobs, local tax revenue, and other economic benefits to a community that wants them more.

That process is not perfect. Nothing involving human beings is. But voluntary exchange does a better job of matching scarce resources with people willing to bear their costs than political systems in which the loudest coalition simply vetoes uses it dislikes.

Unfortunately, that is no longer good enough for a growing number of Americans. The backlash against data centers parallels the rise of democratic socialism in one important respect: Both elevate collective control over individual property rights.

People who want to build data centers should listen seriously to objections. They should pay their own way and answer for the harm they cause. But the reflexive demand to control other people’s property because a project is unpopular reflects a much older political decay.

Restoring property rights is essential to renewing American prosperity and human flourishing. Data centers would be a good place to start.

Poll pits Trump against Reagan and Lincoln — and the results are shocking



President Donald Trump is touting a poll showing that he is more admired than other legendary Republican presidents.

The president posted a video of CNN analyst Harry Enten covering the poll that showed 53% of Republican respondents said they admired Trump more than Ronald Reagan or Abraham Lincoln.

'Trump's still the sun around which the GOP revolves.'

Only 18% of Republicans said in the CNN poll they admired Reagan most, while a paltry 8% said they admired Lincoln most.

Trump posted a short video to his Truth Social account from the segment that first aired on CNN on Wednesday.

Enten used the poll to explain why Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone won the Republican primary runoff for one of two South Carolina seats in the U.S. Senate.

"Trump's still the sun around which the GOP revolves," he posted on social media.

"Trump's endorsees for Senate have won 100% of the time in 2026," he added. "He pulled Graham, who had little shot pre-endorsement, over the finish line."

Enten pointed out that a separate Elon University poll found 29% of Republicans said Trump was the best president in history, while only 25% said the same of Lincoln and 14% said the same of George Washington.

RELATED: Democrats face CRUSHING math problem trying to take over the Senate: CNN

He went on to show that New York City Democrat Mayor Zohran Mamdani had grown his national support and now had the most positive net favorability among Democrats, surpassing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Many polls have reported that the president's favorability has suffered after the prolonged military operation in Iran and some of its economic fallout.

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Mike Lee SOUNDS the ALARM after stunning polls from Senate race in Texas



Republicans are worried that the election for one of Texas' seats in the U.S. Senate is slipping away after astounding results from the most recent polls.

Three of the polls show Democrat candidate James Talarico beating Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and a fourth shows a tie. Another three show Paxton beating the Democrat.

An average of the poll had Talarico above Paxton by 0.7%.

Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah called on conservatives to back Paxton in light of Talarico's extremist opinions and policies.

"Now is the time for every Republican to support @KenPaxtonTX. No exceptions. We can’t have a senator from Texas who thinks 'God is nonbinary,'" wrote Lee with a link to the polling. Paxton defeated one of Lee's colleagues, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, in the Republican primary runoff after receiving Trump's endorsement.

Two of the polls showing the Democrat winning were Fox News and New York Times/Siena polls, while the ones showing Paxton winning included Quantus and YouGov.

An average of the poll had Talarico above Paxton by 0.7%.

The Decision Desk election analysis group noted that Talarico was faring far better against Paxton in polling on the road to the election than Beto O'Rourke did when he tried to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in 2018. O'Rourke lost that contest.

Paxton most recently went on the attack after a report documented evidence that Talarico might have violated the residency rules when he ran for state representative in 2022.

"James Talarico has proven he has zero regard for Texans and the rule of law. He's been lying to voters and shamelessly committing election fraud to hold onto power," he wrote on Tuesday.

RELATED: Yet another bewildering anti-Christian statement from James Talarico has been unearthed

The Talarico campaign claimed that the discrepancy came from processing delays and denied the allegations.

Democrats have a slim chance of winning the U.S. Senate in the midterms, but a victory in Texas would go a long way to help their cause.

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Trump approval rating SOARS in new poll



A recent national poll from RMS Research has some very good news for supporters of President Donald Trump.

In a poll conducted between July 13 and Tuesday, the president's net approval rating increased to the highest level he's had since spring despite the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and some inflation woes.

That lead might not be enough for Democrats to win control of both houses of Congress given the structural advantage Republicans have.

Trump hit 46% approval with only 52% of respondents saying they disapprove of the president's job, for a net rating of -6.

RMS Research data reveals this rating is the highest for Trump since late April and early May, when his net rating sunk to -17.

The results mirrored those reported by a Morning Consult poll released July 6, which also concluded his net approval rating had climbed to its highest since April. Improvements among Republicans and independents led to the increase.

Republicans in general also "gained trust across the board," Morning Consult said, while Democrats' "issue edge narrowed on everything."

However, despite the increase, Republicans continue to lag behind Democrats on the generic ballot. Democrats have 45% support in the generic ballot while Republicans have only 42%, per Morning Consult.

That lead might not be enough for Democrats to win control of both houses of Congress given the structural advantage Republicans have through redistricting in several states, according to recent analysis from CNN political analyst Harry Enten.

RELATED: Democrats face CRUSHING math problem trying to take over the Senate, CNN's Harry Enten says

Republicans made gains on many issues that the poll asked voters to consider. Democrats stalled, despite having a lead.

The generic ballot is seen as a bellwether for the midterm elections.

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